Challenging the long-standing “four-year cycle” narrative of Bitcoin, Grayscale Research anticipates new all-time highs by 2026. The company argues that the current correction period will not evolve into a multi-year bear market, urging investors to remain patient.
Rethinking the Four-Year Cycle
In a report released by Grayscale on Monday, the view that Bitcoin historically peaks every four years and then undergoes a deep correction is deemed outdated. Analysts point out that the current market structure fundamentally differs from previous cycles. Bitcoin is now primarily influenced by institutional funds, rather than individual investors.
Grayscale underscores that the price has declined by 32% since early October, categorizing it as a typical bull market correction. The company states that even corrections over 25% are part of market health and do not signify the end of a rising trend.
The report also highlights macroeconomic factors that are supportive of Bitcoin. Potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the progression of bipartisan cryptocurrency legislation could enhance risk appetite in the 2025–2026 period.
According to data, Bitcoin was trading just over $87,000, showing a 0.59% increase in the last 24 hours. Over the past seven days, it has fallen by 0.80%, and by 21.33% in the past 30 days.
Emphasis on Institutional Structure
Grayscale emphasizes the growing influence of institutional capital in the current market structure. As a result, price movements are not repeating the “parabolic rises” seen in past cycles. Institutional funds entering the system through ETFs and cryptocurrency treasuries have reduced volatility, paving the way for a more sustainable increase.
BitMine CEO Tom Lee concurs, noting that price declines in the market contradict fundamental indicators such as on-chain data and the number of wallets. He stated through X that “while fundamentals improve, declining prices shift the risk-reward balance in favor of Bitcoin and Ethereum.” In a CNBC interview, Lee predicted that Bitcoin could reach new peaks by January 2026.
Grayscale’s analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s future performance relies not only on supply-demand cycles but also on the pace of institutional integration into the financial system. The company argues that the market has entered a phase shaped by more complex economic and political factors rather than four-year intervals.