Grayscale doubts Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle model. New research expects BTC to reach new highs in 2025. Factors like market maturity and institutional growth drive this view.
For years, the crypto community has followed the belief that Bitcoin moves in predictable four-year cycles, largely driven by halving events. However, new research from asset management giant Grayscale challenges this long-standing theory. According to their latest report, Grayscale believes the next Bitcoin market move won’t follow the same script—and they’re forecasting new all-time highs in 2025, not within the typical cycle window.
This shift in outlook stems from a deeper analysis of how the Bitcoin market is evolving. Grayscale argues that the crypto market is maturing, and as a result, it may no longer behave in the same cyclical way it once did.
Grayscale Cites Maturing Market and Institutional Growth
Grayscale’s research points to several reasons behind its bold prediction. The first is the growing influence of institutional investors. With more traditional financial players entering the space, the price action of Bitcoin could become less tied to the halving schedule and more responsive to macroeconomic trends and capital flows.
Secondly, the crypto market as a whole is becoming more efficient. As more infrastructure develops, including spot ETFs, regulated exchanges, and custody solutions, the price of Bitcoin may react more quickly to news and global trends—possibly creating faster, less predictable movements.
Lastly, Grayscale believes that investor expectations have changed. The awareness of the four-year cycle itself may be causing self-fulfilling behavior that won’t hold up as more diverse participants enter the market.
NOW: Grayscale believes Bitcoin's four-year cycle thesis will prove incorrect, expecting $BTC to make new highs next year, in its latest research. pic.twitter.com/OaDaxjFb1y
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) December 2, 2025
What Could This Mean for Investors?
If Grayscale’s outlook is correct, 2025 could bring fresh all-time highs for Bitcoin—but not in the way most crypto enthusiasts expect. Investors may need to rethink old models and prepare for a market that reacts more like traditional finance, influenced by global economic data, interest rates, and institutional positioning.
This doesn’t mean the halving events are irrelevant, but rather that they may no longer be the dominant force driving price action. For anyone investing or trading Bitcoin, the key takeaway is clear: be ready for a new kind of cycle—one shaped by broader adoption and economic trends.