Google announced Thursday it is adding prediction markets data from Kalshi and Polymarket to Google Finance, allowing users to query crowd-sourced probability forecasts for future economic and market events directly through the platform's search interface.
The integration enables users to ask questions such as "What will GDP growth be for 2025?" or inquire about Federal Reserve rate decisions and receive current market probabilities along with historical probability changes over time.
The feature will roll out over the coming weeks, beginning with users who have opted into Google Finance experiments through Labs.
"We're adding support for prediction markets data from Kalshi and Polymarket, so you can ask questions about future market events and harness the wisdom of the crowds," said Robert Dunnette, director of product management for Search at Google, in a blog post announcing the updates.
Expanding Accessibility of Prediction Markets
The integration represents a significant expansion in accessibility for prediction markets, which have historically operated as standalone platforms outside traditional financial information ecosystems. By embedding Kalshi and Polymarket data directly into Google Finance, the company is positioning crowd-sourced probability forecasts alongside conventional market data, earnings reports, and financial news.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange offering event contracts on economic indicators, policy decisions, and other outcomes. Polymarket functions as a decentralized prediction market platform that has gained prominence for forecasting political events, economic data releases, and cryptocurrency market movements.
The move comes as prediction markets have demonstrated growing accuracy in forecasting election outcomes and economic events, with platforms like Polymarket processing billions in trading volume during recent election cycles. By integrating this data into a widely used financial information platform, Google is effectively validating prediction markets as a legitimate information source for financial decision-making.
Impact on Investors and Market Participants
The integration could affect both prediction markets platforms and Google Finance users in several ways. For retail investors and financial researchers, access to prediction markets data through Google Finance removes friction in gathering crowd-sourced forecasts. Previously, users needed to navigate to separate platforms and understand prediction market mechanics to access this information. Now, probability forecasts appear alongside traditional financial data in a familiar interface. This accessibility could increase participation in prediction markets themselves, as users who discover forecasts through Google Finance may subsequently engage with Kalshi or Polymarket directly. Increased liquidity and participation typically improve prediction market accuracy, potentially creating a feedback loop where mainstream visibility enhances forecast quality.
For institutional market participants, the integration signals that prediction markets data is becoming standard reference material alongside traditional indicators. Analysts and portfolio managers who previously dismissed prediction markets as speculative may reconsider as Google's endorsement lends credibility to the data source.
Information Asymmetry and Future Considerations
The integration also raises questions about information asymmetry. Sophisticated market participants have long monitored prediction markets for edge in forecasting policy decisions, economic data, and market events. Democratizing access to this information through Google Finance levels the playing field but may also reduce the informational advantage that early prediction market adopters enjoyed.
Meanwhile, Google did not disclose whether it is paying licensing fees to Kalshi and Polymarket for data access or whether the platforms view the integration as promotional partnership that drives traffic to their platforms. The commercial relationship structure could influence whether other financial platforms pursue similar integrations.
Additionally, Google has not clarified how it will handle potential conflicts when Kalshi and Polymarket show divergent probability forecasts for the same event, or whether users will see data from both platforms simultaneously with discrepancies highlighted. The company also did not address whether it will expand prediction markets integration beyond Kalshi and Polymarket to include other platforms or whether exclusivity agreements limit additional partnerships.