Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, said: “We built two baskets of leading drugmakers: one focused on GLP‑1 producers (Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, Teva and Hikma), and another on non‑GLP‑1 peers (Novartis, Johnson & Johnson, GlaxoSmithKline, AbbVie and Bayer). Over five years, the GLP‑1 basket has surged 130%, compared with just 42% for non‑GLP‑1 firms. That performance also outpaced the S&P 500 (+98%), the EuroStoxx 50 (+73%) and the FTSE 100 (+59%)”.
What makes this run more remarkable is that it includes a challenging past year. The GLP‑1 basket is down 12% over the past 12 months, with Novo Nordisk shares down 50%, while non‑GLP‑1 pharma is up 10%. By comparison, the S&P 500 has risen 16% in the same period.
Over the past five years, the stand‑out performer is Eli Lilly, up 486% followed by Teva which has more than doubled (+116%). Novo Nordisk climbed 76% despite a steep pullback in the last year, while Hikma has slipped 28%. On the non‑GLP‑1 side, AbbVie has been the strongest (+168% over five years), while Bayer has been the weakest, falling almost 40%.
The market for weight‑loss drugs is projected to be worth around USD $130 billion by 2030, which would require annual growth of nearly 50% from today’s levels. We have seen shares of GLP‑1 manufacturers struggle in the last 12 months due to a reset on these lofty expectations. Valuations grew, and firms like Novo Nordisk announced profits would not grow as quickly as expected, which led them to cut 9,000 jobs as they scale back operations.
Novo Nordisk has long dominated this market with its insulin and GLP‑1 products, offering more effective long‑term management and transforming the lives of patients globally. But growing demand for these products has seen competition grow. Novo’s closest rival, Eli Lilly, a far larger and more diversified healthcare giant, has seen shares surge in the last five years, with its diabetes drug Zepbound seeing strong results in weight loss.
Still, the extraordinary growth expected has made the sector one of the most attractive opportunities in healthcare, with pharmaceutical and biotech firms racing to develop the next breakthrough treatment. While it’s difficult to predict which company will emerge as the dominant player, one thing is clear, there is enormous potential in this space.
As life expectancy rises, so too does the prevalence of diabetes, particularly here in the UAE, where more than one in five adults live with the condition. In the UAE, the effects extend well beyond the stock market. The growing popularity of GLP‑1 treatments has influenced everything from local healthcare supply chains to dining culture, with some Dubai restaurants now offering smaller portion menus to cater to those using appetite‑suppressing drugs.
For investors, GLP‑1s still represent one of the most exciting stories in healthcare. The sector has faced a bit of a reality check after an exceptional run, but the bigger picture is that global demand is growing fast, including here in the Middle East, and the companies leading this revolution are still shaping one of the biggest shifts we’ve seen in healthcare for years.
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