Crypto whale Garrett Jin, in a comprehensive analysis shared on social media, strongly opposed the “bear market” narrative being used for Bitcoin.
Jin argued that some analysts have recently compared Bitcoin’s current price movements to market conditions in 2022, but this approach is unfounded from a long-term perspective.
According to Jin, at the beginning of 2022, the primary goal of global capital was risk aversion, and Bitcoin was distributing itself at high levels within the tightening cycle. Jin notes that the current macroeconomic environment is moving in the opposite direction, stating that the US liquidity index has simultaneously broken both short-term and long-term downtrends, and a new uptrend is beginning to form.
Technical Analysis and Market Traps
Jin noted that technically, Bitcoin exhibited an “M-top” formation on the weekly chart during 2021–2022, which could create prolonged downward pressure, but stated that the current structure is different. Although the weekly ascending channel appears to have broken downwards, he said this could be a potential “bear trap,” and that the price is highly likely to return within the channel. He also argued that the strong consolidation and change of hands in the $80,850–$62,000 range offers a higher upside potential than downside risk for long positions.
Conditions for a Structural Bear Market
According to Jin, a structural bear market requires the simultaneous occurrence of three negative conditions: a new inflation shock or a major geopolitical crisis on the scale of 2022, central banks returning to interest rate hikes or balance sheet reduction, and a permanent drop in price below the $80,850 level. He argued that declaring a bear market without these conditions being met is more speculation than analysis.
Evolution of Investor Structure
The most significant difference highlighted in the analysis was the investor structure. Jin noted that in 2022, Bitcoin experienced a “crypto-specific” bear market primarily driven by individual investors with high leverage, while today it has entered a more mature phase with institutional actors taking center stage. He stated that the current structure is characterized by locked supply, stable underlying demand, and volatility at the institutional level, and predicted that by early 2026, Bitcoin will be operating on a completely different ground than it did in 2022.