Gemini shares experienced a significant surge, climbing 13%, following the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) approval of its plan to launch a prediction market within the United States.
The platform will enable users to place bets on the outcomes of various real-world events through "yes or no contracts," as detailed in an announcement made by the exchange on December 10. US customers will soon have the ability to trade these event contracts on the exchange's web interface using USD, with mobile support anticipated to follow shortly.
Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder and CEO of Gemini, stated, "Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini." He expressed gratitude to President Trump for ending the Biden Administration’s "War on Crypto" and Acting Chairman Caroline Pham for her efforts in realizing the vision of making America the crypto capital of the world. Winklevoss added, "It’s incredibly refreshing and invigorating to have a President and a financial regulator who are pro crypto, pro innovation, and pro America."
We’ve just received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the @CFTC which will allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customers.
— Gemini (@Gemini) December 10, 2025
His brother and fellow Gemini co-founder, Cameron Winklevoss, also commended the CFTC Acting Chair's innovation-focused policies. He remarked, "Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets." Cameron Winklevoss further noted, "Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro business, pro innovation regulator that will allow America to lead in these new and exciting markets."
Gemini's foray into prediction markets aligns with its objective of developing a comprehensive crypto super app. During its third-quarter earnings call, the exchange indicated a preference for creating in-house solutions rather than relying on third-party providers.
Gemini Entering A Competitive Space
Gemini's planned entry into the prediction markets arena occurs amidst intensifying competition. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi lead the market in terms of monthly trading volumes, both experiencing record activity in recent months. Within the US market, Kalshi holds a leading position, but it is expected to face increased competition from Polymarket following the CFTC's clearance for its re-entry into the US market.
The dominance of these two platforms has been bolstered by a series of integrations and partnerships with entities such as Google, X, and the UFC.
Other significant players are also aiming to establish a presence in this rapidly expanding market. Robinhood Markets, for instance, partnered with Kalshi earlier this year. In its most recent earnings call, Robinhood reported that prediction markets were among its fastest-growing business segments in 2025.
Binance Launches Predict.fun On BNB Chain
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, also announced the recent launch of a prediction market named Predict.fun on BNB Chain. Concurrently, sports giant Fanatics has entered the space through a collaboration with Crypto.com.
In a post on X dated December 3, CZ welcomed Predict.Fun to the BNB Chain, noting that the platform was developed by a former Binance employee and that his family office, YZi Labs, had incubated and invested in it.
Welcome a new prediction market on @BNBCHAIN.
When you make a prediction, you funds don't sit idle, they generate yield.Disclaimer:
Founder is ex-Binance (a few years ago).
Incubated/invested by YZiLabs.
This tweet is not endorsement. 🙏 https://t.co/E0fxxKc3eE— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) December 3, 2025
CZ explained that the market will enable users to earn yields on the capital they allocate to their bets, addressing industry demands for more active utilization of funds on prediction market platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi have also recently introduced similar features, including layered-staking rewards, treasury incentives, and points systems designed to enhance user engagement.