Gemini is launching new products in the prediction market, allowing people to make informed bets on real-life events. For Gemini, venturing into the prediction market represents a significant step towards exploring a bigger market.
Applying for CFTC Approval
In May, Gemini requested approval from the CFTC to become a Designated Contract Market (DCM). This approval would enable the company to launch and operate prediction market contracts in a legally compliant manner.
🚨 JUST IN: Gemini is preparing to offer prediction market contracts, per Bloomberg. pic.twitter.com/5uxsEU0Fqi
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 5, 2025
The procedure, however, is not rapid. Getting a green light from the CFTC can take months or even years. The current US government shutdown may cause even more delays. Still, Gemini has discussed launching the products as soon as they get approval.
A Crowded Field of Competitors
Gemini’s move puts it in direct competition with leading prediction market platforms, such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is fully registered with the CFTC, while Polymarket plans to reopen in the US soon after regulatory adjustments. Other companies are also jumping in. Robinhood, for instance, now offers event contracts from Kalshi.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC grants Polymarket approval to operate crypto prediction markets in the US. pic.twitter.com/SmELwUHEpz
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) September 3, 2025
Meanwhile, Gemini’s biggest crypto rival, Coinbase, has hinted that it too plans to get into it. In recent earnings calls, Coinbase stated that it aims to be an Everything Exchange. It offers cryptocurrency and event-based contracts.
A Risky but Promising Bet
The fact that Gemini has decided to go to prediction markets is timely. The company’s stock has declined by approximately 40% since its September IPO, and it remains a money-losing business. By expanding into new markets, Gemini hopes to create fresh opportunities for growth and relevance.
News: Crypto firm Gemini Space Station $GEMI is planning to soon launch prediction contracts trading, an increasingly crowded field.
With @olgakharif@antoniabmassa@nicola_m_white: pic.twitter.com/wPE4vPddCs
— Lydia Beyoud (@ElleBeyoud) November 4, 2025
Analysts say prediction markets could be a smart move. A Needham analyst described it as an “attractive opportunity” for Gemini to expand beyond cryptocurrency.
Conclusion
Gemini’s push into the prediction market demonstrates how crypto exchanges are expanding their options. If approved, it could become a major participant in a sector that combines finance, data, and foresight.
In the meantime, the CFTC’s decision is under scrutiny. If Gemini gets the green light, it may be one of the first to make the breakthrough between blockchain and real-world predictions.