Gemini Exec: Bitcoin Cycle Will Persist in Some Form—What Investors Should Know

While Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle has historically driven predictable market behaviors, recent analyses indicate that these traditional patterns may be less rigid than before. Nonetheless, some industry voices maintain that cycles likely remain relevant, driven by investor enthusiasm and market sentiment.

“I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” Saad Ahmed, head of APAC at Gemini, told industry observers during a panel at Token2049 in Singapore. “It ultimately stems from people getting excited and overextending, leading to a crash, then correcting to an equilibrium.”

Despite some skepticism, increased institutional involvement might stabilize the often tumultuous crypto markets, helping to moderate some of the volatility seen in previous cycles. “You’ll see some volatility, but a cycle could still be identified because it’s ultimately driven by human emotion,” Ahmed added.

The ongoing debate centers around whether Bitcoin’s price movements continue to align with its historic four‑year halving cycle. Notably, in August, analytics firm Glassnode suggested recent market behaviors might still be in sync with this long‑term pattern.

October could see Bitcoin’s cycle peak if historical trends repeat

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that the upcoming month might mark Bitcoin’s peak, assuming the pattern from 2020 repeats itself. “If the cycle mirrors 2020, the market would likely peak in October, roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving,” he explained, emphasizing the nearing end of the current expansion phase.

As Bitcoin continues its recent rally, the digital asset surged approximately 11.5% over the past week, nearing its all‑time high of $124,100 set on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap data.

However, some experts, like Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, remain cautious. Hougan recently indicated that Bitcoin might not adhere strictly to its old cycle, predicting a positive outlook for 2026 and beyond. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” he said, reflecting optimism about the broader crypto market’s trajectory.

October’s market activity coincides with the start of Q4, which historically has been the most profitable quarter for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of nearly 80%, according to CoinGlass statistics. As the crypto markets evolve amid regulatory developments and new DeFi and NFT projects, observers are keenly watching how cycle theories will manifest in the coming months.