Galaxy Revises Bitcoin Price Forecast to $120K as Market Momentum Fades

Key Takeaways

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  Galaxy has revised its 2025 Bitcoin price outlook, signaling a more cautious stance.
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  The firm describes the current phase as Bitcoin’s “maturity era,” marked by lower volatility.
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  October’s whale selling and leveraged liquidations have pressured market sentiment.
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  Analysts see the correction as part of a normal cycle rather than the start of a bear market.

Galaxy has lowered its year-end 2025 forecast for Bitcoin to $120,000, trimming it sharply from the previous $185,000 projection. Analysts cite a combination of structural changes within the crypto market and a wave of new institutional investment that has altered how Bitcoin behaves.

From Volatility to Stability

Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, described this new environment as Bitcoin’s “maturity era.” He argues that as capital from ETFs and traditional finance has flooded in, price swings have grown less extreme, transforming the asset into something that moves more like gold than a high-risk tech stock.

“Bitcoin has reached a phase where institutional flows and passive investment dominate,” Thorn wrote on X. “The market has matured, but that maturity also means slower gains ahead.”

Thorn said that as long as Bitcoin manages to stay above the $100,000 zone, the multi-year uptrend remains intact — though investors should not expect the explosive momentum seen in earlier bull cycles.

Whale Selling and Shifting Narratives

The research highlights several headwinds that have weighed on the market in recent weeks. Large holders, often referred to as whales, sold roughly 400,000 BTC in October — a wave of selling that added pressure to an already fragile rally.

At the same time, capital has been rotating out of crypto and into alternative investment stories, including gold, artificial intelligence equities, and stablecoins. Leveraged traders have also been forced to unwind positions, adding further downward momentum.

October’s sell-off culminated in the now-infamous flash crash on October 10, when roughly $20 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours — the largest wipeout in crypto history. According to Thorn, that event “materially damaged” the market’s bullish structure and slowed the pace of recovery.

Bear Market Fears Resurface

Bitcoin briefly fell below the $100,000 level this week for the first time since June, intensifying speculation that a longer downturn could be brewing. Data from TradingView shows BTC dipping beneath its 365-day moving average, a line that has historically served as a critical support zone.

The correction, now measuring over 20% from the all-time high of $126,000, has divided analysts. Some consider it a routine pullback in a continuing bull cycle, while others fear it could mark the opening stages of a bear market.

Market analyst Lourenço VS noted that this size of correction still falls within normal historical parameters. “Every cycle brings 20–25% retracements, occasionally touching 30%. This one is no different,” he commented on X.

Slower Doesn’t Mean Weaker

Despite the reduced forecast, Galaxy remains fundamentally bullish. Thorn emphasized that while speculative excess has faded, the underlying network strength and institutional adoption continue to deepen.

“The narrative has changed,” he said. “Bitcoin is no longer the wild, volatile asset it once was. It’s maturing into an institutional product.”

The firm expects Bitcoin’s next advances to come not from retail frenzy but from sustained accumulation by funds and corporations. In this new phase, the world’s largest digital asset may trade less like a speculative rocket — and more like a financial mainstay.