The XRP price is currently trading near $1.90, marking a 19% decline over the past month. Although short-term holders are showing signs of capitulation—a historical bottoming signal—the expected recovery is delayed because the market washout phase is deemed incomplete.
Bullish Signal vs. Reasons for Delay
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Bullish Signal (Capitulation)
The short-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has dropped to –0.30, which is its lowest reading this year. This level traditionally marks capitulation, where recent buyers are holding losses and are emotionally flushed out, often preceding a local bottom and rebound (as seen in April and June).
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Reasons for Delay (Incomplete Washout)
The recovery is missing because the current level of total capitulation is not strong enough yet. The Spent Coins Age Band metric tracks total selling pressure. In early November, a drop from $2.54 to $2.15 was accompanied by a 416% spike in spent coins, which confirmed a clean capitulation and led to a bottom. The current drop from $2.27 to $1.96 saw spent coins increase by only 112%. Since 112% is significantly lower than the previous 416% spike, the washout phase is considered incomplete. More selling pressure may be needed before the final bottom forms and a recovery can begin.
Key Resistance, Support, and Outlook
The incomplete capitulation suggests that the price may be vulnerable to one more downside movement before a true recovery:
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Crucial Support
The price currently sits below the important support level of $1.95. A clean daily close under this level would confirm a breakdown.
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Downside Target
Losing $1.95 fully exposes the next major zone near $1.57, which analysts suggest could highlight the final bottom if capitulation continues.
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Bearish Catalyst
A potential bearish crossover is building on the chart as the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) moves closer to crossing below the 200-day EMA, which could serve as a bigger short-term catalyst for a decline.
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Upside Invalidation
For the XRP price to show early strength and invalidate the near-term bearish trend, it must first reclaim $2.08, followed by the resistance at $2.26.
Final Conclusion
Despite flashing a historical capitulation signal (NUPL at –0.30), the XRP price recovery is delayed because the total market washout has been shallow, confirmed by the minimal 112% spike in spent coins compared to previous bottoms. The outlook remains bearish until the price reclaims $2.08. If the required capitulation plays out, losing $1.95 support could lead to one more leg down, targeting the $1.57 zone to complete the market flush.
Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on technical analysis and market data. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any financial decisions.