Michael Saylor, the prominent Bitcoin evangelist and executive chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), is a significant figure in the cryptocurrency market. As of November 3, 2025, Strategy holds 641,205 Bitcoin, valued at over $59 billion, positioning the company as a major proxy for cryptocurrency investment. Despite Strategy's consistent Bitcoin accumulation, recurring concerns and FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) emerge with each announcement. These concerns include accusations that Saylor's purchases are covertly dumping on retail investors, triggering liquidations, and potentially leading to a "Saylor squeeze" that could drive Bitcoin prices down significantly.
This narrative was amplified on November 17, 2025, when Bitcoin traded around $93,400, a 24% decrease from its October highs, influenced by fears of tariffs and substantial ETF withdrawals. Despite an 8% price drop during this period, which fueled accusations of market manipulation, Strategy announced its largest purchase since July: 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million. Proponents argue that claims of Strategy's $42 billion in debt forcing liquidations are unfounded.
This analysis aims to address the FUD surrounding Saylor's Bitcoin purchases by examining Strategy's own statements, SEC filings, and on-chain data. The core argument is that correlation does not imply causation. Rather than Strategy's treasury holdings directly causing market downturns, Saylor's announcements, through their timing and psychological impact, appear to liquidate overleveraged traders.
The Myth's Origins: Rumors, FUD, and Leverage Fears
The prevailing narrative is often fueled by half-truths amplified through headlines and social media. A primary driver of this FUD is the misinterpretation of wallet movements as dumps. For instance, a shuffle of 47,000 BTC for custody on November 14 led to a price drop below $97,000 and $1.1 billion in liquidations, despite no actual sales occurring. Michael Saylor himself refuted these claims, stating that the movements were associated with accelerated buys.
Concerns about debt and liquidation risk also contribute to the hysteria. Experts have warned that a significant price decline could force Strategy to sell Bitcoin to meet its debt obligations, which include convertibles and preferred stocks totaling over $42 billion. However, Strategy maintains that its "never sell" structure and the extremely high thresholds required for margin calls (around $10,000 to $15,000 per BTC) make forced sales highly improbable. Initial market jitters surrounding a rare 0.94x discount on Strategy's net asset value (mNAV) were quickly allayed, with mNAV recovering to 0.95x after a recent purchase.
Regarding whether Strategy's announcements coincide with dumps, analysis suggests that "Saylor traps" — where approximately 60% of trades react with a -1% to -10% BTC price movement on the day of an announcement — are more about psychology than direct market manipulation. While OTC purchases might delay their immediate spot market impact, profit-taking and broader macroeconomic factors, such as Federal Reserve policies and tariff concerns, are more dominant drivers of price action. Social media platforms, particularly "X," often create an echo chamber that combines hype about Strategy's leveraged Bitcoin exposure with doomsaying scenarios. Saylor has actively countered reports of $1 billion to $2 billion in weekly sales by accelerating his company's purchase of Bitcoin.
Despite similarities to the margin call panic experienced in 2022, Strategy has demonstrated resilience, achieving a year-to-date Bitcoin yield of 27.8%.
Saylor’s Purchases Coincide, But Don’t Cause Cascades
Strategy's investment strategy in 2024-2025 has involved the acquisition of approximately 290,000 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 641,205 BTC at an average cost of around $66,500, resulting in substantial unrealized gains. These purchases act as a backstop during periods of volatility, absorbing between 0.1% and 0.04% of liquidated supply per event, rather than initiating market crashes.
A comparison of Strategy's major purchases against liquidation events reveals a pattern of coincidence rather than causation. For instance, on November 17, 2025, Strategy acquired 8,178 BTC at an average price of $102,171 ($835.6 million). This purchase occurred during a period of $243 million in BTC liquidations over 24 hours. While Bitcoin experienced a 7.9% drop to $94,090 within an hour, Strategy's buy absorbed 65% of net exchange inflows, with broader cryptocurrency liquidations totaling $1.2 billion driven by tariff escalations being the more significant factor.
- •On November 10th, Strategy purchased 487 BTC at $102,557 ($50 million). This coincided with a +3.7% price increase to $106,408, but mNAV dropped to 0.95x, fueling FUD. Following the announcement, prices increased by 3.7% to $115,107, shortening the cascade from the $19 billion October event.
- •On October 27th, 390 BTC were purchased at $111,053 ($43 million), matching $150 million in liquidations from October 21st.
- •Following $5.37 billion in liquidations from October 10–11 (attributed to Trump tariffs), Strategy acquired 220 BTC at $123,561 ($27 million) on October 13th. Although BTC dropped 7.2% to $114,627 after the purchase, it subsequently rebounded by 20%. A slight -0.9% decline to $112,060 was observed from miner sales.
- •On September 29th, 196 BTC at $113,048 ($22 million) were purchased, overlapping with $285 million in liquidations from September 24th.
- •In a larger acquisition, 13,390 BTC were bought at $99,856 ($1.34 billion) on May 12th, coinciding with the bull phase without significant liquidations. The purchase of 7,633 BTC at $85,000 ($650 million) on February 11th stabilized the market in the first quarter after the election.
- •The largest purchase of 2024 occurred between October 31st and November 10th, with 27,200 BTC acquired at approximately $74,500 ($2.03 billion). This purchase preceded $430 million in liquidations on November 26th, limiting the price decline to 6%.
While market downturns often attract opportunistic buying, approximately 60% of liquidations occur concurrently with Strategy's purchases across various events. Price changes typically occur within an hour after an announcement. Recent purchases have seen an average decline of -1.8% compared to the over $30 billion in Bitcoin liquidations throughout 2024-2025. Strategy's total purchases of over $42 billion represent about 2.8% of the daily trading volumes, which can exceed $100 billion. Instead of consistent, causal price pumps, Strategy utilizes OTC stealth purchases combined with external FUD to invert market sentiment.
Why No Pump, But Dips? The Real Cascade Drivers
The discrepancy in scale between Strategy's purchases ($50 million to $835 million, representing 0.05% to 1% of daily volume) and the overall market, including miners (450 BTC/day) and ETFs ($2.3 billion outflows/week), highlights that Strategy's actions alone are unlikely to be the primary cause of major price movements. Psychologically and mechanically, announcements can lead to "selling the news" events, where approximately 70% of longs are liquidated during dips. The visibility of bid liquidity is also delayed by OTC transactions.
Macroeconomic factors, such as Federal Reserve policy decisions, trade tariffs, and geopolitical tensions (like those between the US and Iran), are the predominant motivators for market shifts. On November 17th, risk-off liquidations exceeding $500 million were not directly attributable to Michael Saylor's actions. Strategy's executive chairman has acknowledged that shareholders may face challenges during prolonged bear markets, but he maintains that no forced sales have occurred, and the company's debt structure is designed to avoid margin calls.
The persistence of the myth surrounding Saylor's Bitcoin purchases is partly due to Strategy's profitability. Retail investors may panic based on rumors, while bears might short MSTR stock, leading to premium erosion.
Conclusion
The FUD surrounding Michael Saylor's Bitcoin purchases is a classic case of market noise. The announcements themselves appear to trigger liquidations through timing and psychology rather than direct manipulation of Strategy's treasury holdings. Amidst significant market volatility, such as the $1.1 billion in liquidations observed in November 2025, Strategy's $835 million purchase acted as a stabilizing force, absorbing supply rather than exacerbating downturns. Strategy remains committed to its HODL strategy with 641,000 BTC held steady, demonstrating no signs of sales and strong on-chain bids. This analysis is for informational purposes and not financial advice. For further insights and myth-busting, follow @saylor on X.
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