Ark Invest analyst David Puell has stated that in the upcoming phase of Bitcoin (BTC), the primary determining factor will shift from investor belief in the asset to the extent of their desired exposure and the specific investment vehicles they utilize to achieve it.
Bitcoin Enters Mature Phase with Institutionalization
Puell explained that with the introduction of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in 2024 and the swift adoption of digital asset treasury strategies, Bitcoin has surpassed a critical threshold in its institutionalization. This marks its entry into a more mature phase of its lifecycle.
Institutional Holdings and Price Determinants
ETFs and corporate treasuries currently hold approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, a figure that significantly exceeds prior market expectations. Puell highlighted that this structural demand has become a pivotal element influencing price movements throughout 2025 and anticipates this trend will likely persist into 2026. The market is now characterized by greater institutionalization and a relatively lower volatility due to the faster-than-anticipated accumulation of Bitcoin by institutional entities.
Long-Term Valuation Framework and Price Predictions
Ark Invest remains steadfast in its conviction regarding its long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin. The institution's published model projects Bitcoin prices for 2030 to range between approximately $300,000 in a bearish scenario, $710,000 in a base scenario, and $1.5 million in a bullish scenario. Puell indicated that driven by the "digital gold" narrative and increasing institutional adoption, Bitcoin reaching between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030 remains a reasonable expectation.
Bitcoin's Appeal to Risk-Averse Investors
Furthermore, Puell suggested that as Bitcoin experiences decreasing volatility and narrower pullbacks, it is poised to become an increasingly appealing asset class for investors with a lower risk appetite in the subsequent market cycle.