The Shifting Market Landscape
Even when Bitcoin performed exceptionally well, high caps were barely moving. However, that has changed. We are seeing a strong argument for an altcoin rally. Let's explore how.
Altcoin Rally vs. Dead Cat Bounce: Key Differences Explained
First, let's differentiate between altcoin rallies and dead cat bounces. A dead cat bounce occurs when a coin pumps after a period of bearish consolidation, acting as a bull trap before dumping again. An altcoin rally, on the other hand, is characterized by major altcoins pumping aggressively, cooling down, and then pumping again. This typically happens after Bitcoin reaches its all-time high (ATH) and a subsequent short period of bearishness.
This pattern closely mirrors what occurred in October. Bitcoin registered an ATH, and subsequently, the entire market experienced a downturn in October. In such situations, market sentiment often turns extremely bearish (Extreme Fear), even when prices appear favorable. The sentiment had been predominantly bullish from May 2025 to October 2025. This sentiment reset occurred on October 4th, and since then, the prevailing sentiment has been bearish (FEAR).
Notably, Bitcoin remains above $100k, which is only a 25% decrease from its ATH. Therefore, the current price level of Bitcoin is of secondary importance in this context.
This phase of price action aligns with the characteristics of an altcoin rally, rather than a dead cat bounce. The first evidence supporting this? The ZEC rally. ZEC has surged by over 1200% since September 2025.
ZEC is not a memecoin and does not belong to any dominant narrative. Yet, it experienced a 13x increase in just three months and continues to trend upwards.
A similar pattern was observed with FET in January 2024.
This is also reminiscent of LTC's performance in 2021.
Alt Rally Gaining Strength as ZEC Leads November Surge
Based on these trends, we can anticipate other altcoins to continue their upward momentum throughout November and December.
The focus is currently on large-cap altcoins. It is unlikely that institutional money will rotate directly from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to major altcoins. Instead, traditional crypto whales are likely to drive the altcoin market. This was evident in the $PYR pump, which saw a 160% increase in a single day.
It is important to note that the $PYR pump does not indicate a renewed focus on GameFi, which is considered a stagnant narrative in 2025. Similarly, the $PYR pump does not signify interest in small-cap coins; these are often narratives designed to trap retail investors. Our recommended strategy is to continue holding solid projects, as these are likely to experience their own significant rallies in the coming weeks, similar to ZEC.
ZEC serves as proof that a 13x increase in a large-cap coin is achievable even in Q4 2025. Nobody anticipated ZEC's performance, as it did not see significant pumps in 2024 or 2025. Likewise, many altcoins have no impending team or VC vesting schedules, or their vesting periods have already concluded. Whales are likely to target such coins next. Furthermore, Bitcoin dominance has temporarily deviated from its uptrend. For strong altcoin rallies to occur, Bitcoin dominance should ideally remain below 57%.
Key Takeaways for the Current Market
So, what is the outlook?
- •We believe an altcoin rally is a real possibility at this juncture.
- •ZEC has emerged as the first mover for the Q4 altcoin rally.
- •The first narrative that gains significant momentum will likely be the most dominant in this altcoin rally. The specific narrative remains unknown, but the advantage is that playing narratives simply requires responding to market signals rather than attempting to predict them in advance.
- •Avoid investing in older coins with the expectation of achieving ZEC-like miracles. Coins such as EOS, Tezos, Cardano, Polkadot, and Cosmos are not expected to replicate ZEC's performance.