Ahead of October's CPI release, CME's FedWatch tool indicates a 98.3% probability for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut, with FOMC meetings scheduled for October 29th and December 10th.
These probabilities affect market sentiment, driving potential asset movements, notably influencing Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Solana, amid broader economic policy and regulatory developments.
CME FedWatch Predicts High Likelihood of Rate Cut by Year-End
CME's projection suggests a high probability of monetary policy changes by the end of the year, influencing financial markets and investor strategies. The anticipation of a rate cut has led to increased market activity, with funding rates and derivative positioning reflecting expected movements.
Recent market movements show a significant shift in sentiment. Notably, Bitcoin's price has surpassed $110,000, influenced by regulatory developments and expectations for lower interest rates. This reflects widespread optimism in the crypto market, as traders position for potentially favorable conditions.
"Last Friday, I closed all my short positions and fully switched to long perpetual contract positions. And now the market has given a strong confirmation—last Friday was likely the key bottom, and funds have finally started to flow from gold to Bitcoin...I remain extremely bullish on the market and still firmly believe that BTC will surpass $200,000 and ETH will surpass $10,000" — Nachi, Binance Trader
Bitcoin Price Surge Amid Fed Rate Expectations
High FedWatch rate cut probabilities have historically coincided with short-term Bitcoin rallies, highlighting a typical "risk-on" response from investors during periods of anticipated monetary easing.
Bitcoin (BTC), trading at $110,667.70, with a market cap of $2.21 trillion, demonstrates a 24-hour price increase of 2.07%. With a 24-hour trading volume of $52.62 billion, its circulating supply stands at about 19.94 million BTC out of a max 21 million. These stats were reported as of October 24, 2025.
Anticipated Fed rate changes may accelerate developments in stablecoins and blockchain regulation, leading to increased adoption and innovation in financial technology and digital currency systems. The Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and its implications are a focal area for investors monitoring the broader impact on economic stability and digital assets.