Federal Reserve's Cautious Stance on Interest Rates
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has fallen to 47.4%, as shown by CME's FedWatch data, influencing financial and cryptocurrency markets. Investors adjusted strategies amid lower rate cut expectations, impacting assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting.
The probability for a December 2025 rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve has decreased to a range of 47.4% to 52%, based on CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach due to limited official data, supported by recent comments during his latest press meeting. As Jerome Powell stated, "some participants might see the lack of official data as a reason not to cut in December."
Investor sentiment is shifting, as probability changes lead to a widespread reevaluation across asset classes. The adjustment is lowering trades in futures related to Fed funds. This is particularly noticeable in the cryptocurrency sector, where Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced muted gains.
December Fed Rate Cut: A Toss-Up
Market Data and Expert Insights
When the Fed last held rates with divided committee opinions, cryptocurrency markets saw increased stability, diverging from typical trends of higher volatility during rate adjustments.
Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades at $100,696.78 with a market cap of $2.01 trillion, commanding a 59.32% share of the crypto market. Over the last 24 hours, trading volume reached $78.93 billion with a -0.90% price change. Data provided by CoinMarketCap as of November 13, 2025.
The Coincu research team suggests the reduced likelihood of a rate cut could dampen crypto market exuberance, given historical trends where interest rate expectations have driven volatility. This could lead to more measured investment behavior until the Federal Reserve makes its December announcement.