Key Takeaways
- •Analysts say the violent sell-off looks exhausted and likely marked the end of the correction.
- •Low liquidity increases volatility in both directions, but a stabilization + rebound scenario is favored.
- •Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $95K–$100K zone to fully reset market structure and sentiment.
Instead of treating the crash as the start of a broader breakdown, some strategists are calling it something else entirely: the final chapter of a correction that simply unfolded faster and harder than anyone expected.
The loudest supporter of that interpretation? Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick — and his reasoning is getting attention across the market.
The Numbers Look Like a Floor, Not a Trap
Kendrick isn’t interested in narratives about ETFs, halving cycles, or whales dumping. His point is much simpler — every major mid-cycle crash in the last two years has fallen within the same percentage range, and this one fits right into that pattern.
He also flagged a detail most traders never look at: the valuation ratio between MicroStrategy’s market price and the market value of its BTC holdings. Historically, when that metric collapses to parity — the “1.0” mark — it has aligned with brutal bottoms. It just hit that level again.
To him, that’s enough to argue the sellers are spent.
Thin Liquidity Isn’t Bearish — It’s Volatile
On the opposite side of the debate, analysts tracking liquidity warn that the market is operating in a shallow pool.
Nansen research notes that after the historic liquidation event on Oct. 10, order book depth is roughly 30% lower than before. Thin order books mean the price can be shoved sharply in either direction — not necessarily because sentiment changed, but because liquidity is fragile.
From that perspective, both a bounce and a final flush lower into the mid-$80Ks remain mathematically possible, though a stabilization-then-rebound scenario is considered slightly more likely.
The Make-or-Break Level Everyone Is Quietly Watching
Bitcoin didn’t stay below $90K for long — the bounce toward $93,500 shows buyers aren’t entirely absent. But this isn’t yet a victory. Analysts tracking momentum say the $95K–$100K band is the “structural recovery zone”. Reclaim it, and Bitcoin returns to strength. Fail, and the market continues to limp.
That single price range matters more to traders now than any headline or macro development.
Kendrick has not backed away from his massive long-term projection:
- •$200,000 later in the cycle
- •$500,000 by 2028
He simply chose not to repeat his earlier statement that the drop under $100K would be the “last one ever.” The forecast is unchanged — the timeline is not being re-argued.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.