Expert Says Ripple’s XRP ‘Origin Cycle Theory’ Is Pointing to a Big Upside Setup

Top analyst Cobb is bringing fresh attention to a long-term XRP price pattern he calls the Origin Cycle Theory. It’s a framework based on multi-year wave structures that, according to him, have guided XRP’s biggest moves for more than a decade.

With XRP trading above the $2 range, Cobb believes the chart is signaling the early stages of another major cycle – and the setup looks stronger than many realize.

Understanding the Origin Cycle Theory

Cobb’s theory goes back to XRP’s earliest trading years. His model argues that the XRP price tends to move in large five-wave structures, and he points out that this pattern played out almost perfectly from 2013 to 2017.

In that first major cycle, XRP surged more than 800%, then crashed, then rallied again. Each wave followed the classic five-step rhythm seen in long-term Elliott Wave theory.

According to Cobb, the second wave structure started right after the XRP price peaked at $3.31 in January 2018. That massive run kicked off Wave 1. Wave 2 was the long stretch of capitulation which reached the bottom of the market with XRP going down to $0.114 in 2020. Wave 3 was the rallying phase which reached the top at $1.96 in 2021, and then XRP entered Wave 4 which was the deep correction phase and bottomed out in late 2024 around $0.50.

Everything in this structure is the same: the highs, the lows, the rhythm. It all mirrors the first long-term cycle.

However, Cobb believes the fifth and final wave of the cycle began right after Donald Trump won the U.S. election. After that event, the price of XRP surged upward quickly and even broke above its 2018 peak, up to $3.66 in July 2025. To him, that breakout confirmed that Wave 5 is active, but far from finished.

His chart suggests that once broader market strength returns, XRP may continue climbing along this same long-term cycle path. Cobb doesn’t give an exact timeline, but he does point to a range that previous cycles would imply. The upper levels of that range go far beyond XRP’s recent prices, and the structure itself shows more room for expansion before the cycle tops out.

Other Bullish Long-Term Outlooks for XRP

Moreover, Cobb’s ideas aren’t the only bullish long-term outlook floating around. Last year, analyst EGRAG argued that the XRP price could reach far higher levels if its market dominance returns to its historical range near 20%. He also pointed to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s expectations of a multi-trillion-dollar crypto market as a key factor.

None of these projections are guarantees, but they show that multiple analysts believe XRP isn’t finished with its long-term cycle – and that the next major move could be bigger than anything seen since 2017 or 2021.

What This Means for XRP Right Now

Ripple’s XRP is still dealing with volatility, ETF flows, and overall market uncertainty. But Cobb’s Origin Cycle Theory highlights something that short-term charts often miss: the macro trend. If his pattern continues to hold, the current stretch may be part of a larger structure that has not yet reached its peak.

For now, the takeaway is simple. Cobb thinks the XRP price is entering the upper portion of its long-term Wave 5 – and if that pattern remains intact, there may still be significant upside ahead. Whether the market follows the script or not, the coming months will reveal whether this decade-long structure is truly repeating.