Expanding M2 Liquidity Ethereum’s Path to $10K in a Reflation Surge?

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  Global M2 money supply hit $95,947B as of October 3, 2025, with +2.18% growth signaling robust liquidity tailwinds for risk assets like ETH.
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  Ethereum exchange reserves continue to dwindle, dropping to multi-year lows and creating a supply squeeze as price hovers near $4,515.
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  Analysts like Tom Lee forecast $10K-$15K ETH by year-end if M2 reflation persists, bolstered by ETF inflows and staking ETF approvals.

Ethereum (ETH) stands at the precipice of a liquidity-fueled renaissance, as on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant posits a tantalizing $10K scenario tied to surging global M2 money supply. In a fresh October 6, 2025, insight, the firm notes that if structural outflows from global equities persist amid expanding liquidity, ETH could realign with M2 growth trajectories, ushering in a “new reflation phase.” Trading at $4,515.32 today—up 0.6% from yesterday’s close—ETH has navigated choppy waters, but declining exchange reserves paint a bullish canvas of accumulation.

The charts tell the tale: Coinbase Premium Index, a barometer of U.S. investor fervor, has decoupled positively from ETH’s price, hinting at renewed U.S. demand. Meanwhile, all‑exchange ETH reserves have plummeted to 18.9 million tokens, the lowest since 2018, as whales and institutions hoard amid ETF hype. This supply constriction echoes Bitcoin’s post‑halving dynamics, where scarcity amplified rallies. Global M2, ballooning to $95,947 billion by October 3 with 2.18% monthly growth, underscores the macro backdrop—faster than the U.S. YoY clip of 4.82% in September. Historically, ETH has mirrored M2 expansions during bull legs, surging 1,200% in 2021 as liquidity flooded in.

Catalysts abound. Spot ETH ETFs have siphoned $4 billion in two weeks, per recent flows, while staking ETF approvals loom with 90% odds by November, potentially unlocking billions in locked ETH. Tom Lee’s Fundstrat doubled down, pegging $10K‑$15K as “base case” if supercycle vibes hold, citing supply squeezes and layer‑2 scaling. Yet, skeptics eye hurdles: Regulatory fog around staking and Bitcoin’s dominance could cap alts. Fibonacci extensions from the $1,400 low target $6,500 interim, but a sustained M2 uptick could vault past $10K.

For investors, this M2‑ETH nexus revives 2021’s magic—reflation rewarding risk. Monitor reserves and premium gaps; if alignment clicks, $10K isn’t fantasy, but the next liquidity leg. ETH’s resilience shines, but macro whims demand caution in this reflation roulette.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.