European Union leaders are preparing a measured response to a renewed U.S. tariff threat while openly questioning whether negotiations with Washington can prevent escalation. President Donald Trump has said the United States could impose a 10% import tariff starting Feb. 1, 2026, reviving trade tensions at a sensitive moment for transatlantic relations. EU officials say they are keeping diplomatic channels open, yet they are also drafting countermeasures in case talks fail.
The European Commission has confirmed that preparatory work is underway, even as it stresses that no final decision has been taken. Officials describe the approach as defensive, aimed at protecting EU industries rather than provoking a broader trade dispute. Still, skepticism runs through recent statements from national leaders, reflecting concern that previous understandings with Washington have not always held.
EU Signals Readiness to Retaliate
Behind the scenes, EU diplomats have discussed reviving a suspended retaliation package covering roughly €93 billion worth of U.S. goods. The list mirrors past trade disputes and would target politically sensitive sectors if the U.S. tariffs move forward. According to officials, the goal is deterrence rather than punishment.
At the same time, leaders from major economies such as Germany and France have emphasized unity. They have said Europe will not accept unilateral pressure and will respond collectively if needed. However, they have also underlined that retaliation remains a last resort.
Commission officials continue to frame the situation as conditional. They say countermeasures would only be activated if Washington formally implements the tariffs, allowing room for negotiations in the coming months.
Broader Tools and Economic Stakes
Beyond tariffs, EU discussions now include the possible use of the Anti-Coercion Instrument, a legal tool that allows the bloc to respond to economic pressure with steps beyond traditional trade measures. While its use would mark a significant escalation, officials say its mere existence strengthens the EU’s negotiating position.
The economic implications could be wide-ranging. A 10% U.S. tariff would raise costs for exporters, disrupt supply chains, and add uncertainty for companies operating across the Atlantic. European policymakers warn that such moves risk slowing trade at a time when growth remains fragile.
For now, EU leaders say they prefer stability over confrontation. Yet the combination of active contingency planning and public skepticism suggests Brussels is bracing for a tougher phase in trade relations if diplomacy fails to deliver.