Ether (ETH) is currently trading near the $3,300 mark. Analysis of futures market trends suggests a potential for another 10% to 25% upside movement. However, before a sustained rally can develop, the market may experience a price dip driven by liquidations.
Key Market Indicators for Ether
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Ether's Leverage Ratio is hovering around 0.60. This level has historically preceded rallies of 10% to 25% following short-term pullbacks.
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The ETH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remains below 1. This indicates that realized losses are still outweighing profits, even with recent price gains.
Ether Leverage Dynamics Favor Upside Potential
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay has highlighted a recurring pattern in Ether's leverage dynamics on the Binance exchange. A rapid rise in the Leverage Ratio above the current price has historically led to brief downside movements. These dips tend to flush out overleveraged long positions, paving the way for strong upside reactions.
This specific pattern has been observed multiple times in 2025, including in February, April, September, and November. A similar sequence occurred in October, where a sharp spike in leverage triggered a sudden price drop before the trend continued upwards.
The current Leverage Ratio is near 0.60, which is considered relatively elevated. Notably, the leverage has not decreased despite recent price increases, signaling a persistent appetite for risk among traders. Historically, pullbacks occurring at these leverage levels have been followed by rallies of 10% to 25%. This suggests that Ether might be positioning itself for a significant upside move after a final liquidity sweep.
In parallel, Glassnode analyst Sean Rose pointed out a divergence in ETH holder behavior. Despite Ether outperforming Bitcoin since the January lows, ETH's spent-output profit ratio remains below 1. This implies that the aggregate losses incurred by ETH holders are still greater than their profits. This observation suggests a weaker conviction among current spot holders of ETH compared to Bitcoin participants.
Data Suggests a Short-Term ETH Dip is Imminent
Ether recorded its highest daily close since November 12, 2025, at $3,324. A 25% rally from this point would push ETH above $4,100. However, the probability of a minor price dip in the short term remains elevated.
On the daily chart, Ether formed an order block between $3,050 and $3,170 during its recent upward impulse. This price range aligns with the point of control on the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP). The VRVP is an indicator that identifies the price levels where the most trading volume has occurred since September 2025.
It is possible that the price could gravitate back towards this level, as it represents an area of fair value where buyers and sellers previously agreed on the price. This zone is often revisited as a point of equilibrium.
Further supporting this outlook, Hyblock data reveals a significant concentration of net long positions, exceeding $500 million, situated between $3,040 and $3,100. Such dense positioning increases the likelihood of a short-term price sweep into this range. This action could potentially set the stage for a stronger continuation move afterward.
