Technical Analysis and Trading Opportunities
Ethereum’s wave 1 impulse from $3,500 lows sets up a $3,640 long entry for a wave 3 target at $4,500, according to Elliott Wave analysis. ETF inflows have reached $2.1 billion weekly, boosting Total Value Locked (TVL) to $120 billion amid Dencun’s fee reductions and restaking enthusiasm. A critical resistance level is observed at $4,300; a break above this point could lead to a $5,000 target, while rejection might trigger a cascade down to $3,200.
Ethereum (ETH) continues to be a prominent asset in the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) space, and its recent price movements are being analyzed through the lens of classic Elliott Wave theory. As Bitcoin consolidates above $68,000, an update from chart analyst @ai_charts dissects the ETH/USD daily chart. The analysis suggests that an initial impulse surge from the October lows has laid the groundwork for a subsequent upward movement. The recommendation is to consider a long position around $3,640 to capitalize on the anticipated wave, or to pivot to a short position if the resistance around the $4,300 range holds firm and leads to a rejection.
Examining the TradingView chart from mid-October to early November 2025, Ethereum's candlesticks indicate a bullish sentiment. The cryptocurrency bottomed out at $3,500 on October 18, influenced by concerns over ETF outflows. It subsequently experienced a 12% surge to $3,950 by October 23, marking what is identified as wave 1 in Elliott Wave terminology. Currently consolidating within a narrow range between $3,600 and $3,800, the chart suggests $3,640 as an opportune entry point for a retracement buy during wave 2. Potential upside targets are projected at $4,500, representing a wave 3 extension, which could be reached by mid-November, contingent on a 61.8% Fibonacci confluence. Volume divergence observed during the pullback, characterized by increasing buying volume against decreasing selling pressure, signals accumulation. Furthermore, the MACD histogram has turned positive for the first time since September, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Fundamental Catalysts and Market Dynamics
These technical indicators are supported by strong fundamental developments. The impact of Ethereum's Dencun upgrade continues to be felt, with layer-2 fees reduced by approximately 90%, leading to a 30% increase in TVL, which now stands at $120 billion. Spot ETH ETFs, approved in July, recorded $2.1 billion in inflows last week, surpassing Bitcoin's inflows according to Bloomberg. There are also discussions about a potential scalability pitch by Vitalik Buterin at Devcon in November, which could further stimulate restaking protocols and direct more ETH into yield-generating opportunities. On-chain activity shows a daily active address count of 1.2 million, representing a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase, indicating growing real-world utility beyond speculative trading.
Risk Factors and Outlook
However, potential risks remain. A delay in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments or significant gains by Solana's meme coin ecosystem could cap Ethereum's price at around $4,000. If the support level at $3,600 is breached, a decline to $3,200 is possible. Despite these concerns, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, indicating a neutral but potentially consolidating position, and Bitcoin's dominance has fallen below 55%, suggesting a favorable environment for altcoin momentum. The $4,300 level is identified as a crucial turning point: a decisive break above this resistance could propel ETH towards $5,000, whereas a rejection might lead to a short-term decline targeting $3,200. Within the context of Ethereum's ongoing maturation, this impulse wave pattern could contribute to significant gains in the fourth quarter. Traders are advised to position themselves accordingly as the market momentum builds.