Ethereum remained near $3,875 on Thursday, marking a 3.7% decline for the week, while large investors accumulated approximately $660 million worth of the cryptocurrency over a 48-hour period. The buying activity from major holders contrasts sharply with accelerating selloffs from short-term traders, creating a standoff that has prevented the second-largest cryptocurrency from staging a meaningful recovery following last week's losses.
Key Developments
- •Between Oct. 21 and Oct. 23, whale wallets added roughly 170,000 Ether tokens, increasing their holdings from 100.30 million to 100.47 million Ether.
- •Three categories of short-term holders reduced their share of supply since mid-October, with 1-week-to-1-month holders dropping from 8.79% to 7.79% of total supply.
- •Technical indicators show a bullish divergence pattern, though confirmation requires a daily close above $4,137, representing approximately a 7% increase from current levels.
Diverging Strategies Between Large and Small Holders
On-chain tracking data reveals that major Ethereum holders executed significant purchases during a two-day window this week. The accumulation lifted whale holdings by 170,000 Ether, valued at roughly $660 million at current prices. This represents one of the largest 48-hour buying periods by whales documented this month, according to blockchain analytics.
However, shorter-term investors moved in the opposite direction.
Data from HODL Waves, which categorizes wallets based on how long they hold assets, shows three distinct groups reduced their positions since mid-October. Holders who kept Ether for 24 hours decreased their share from 0.887% to 0.48%. Those holding between one day and one week dropped from 2.22% to 2.01%. The one-week-to-one-month cohort fell from 8.79% to 7.79%.
The opposing movements create what market observers describe as a tug-of-war. Large investors absorb supply while smaller traders distribute tokens into any price strength.
This dynamic has kept Ether locked in a tight trading range despite the substantial capital inflow from whales.
Technical Patterns Suggest Potential for Upward Movement
Chart analysis indicates Ethereum maintains a constructive technical structure despite recent selling pressure. The daily timeframe shows the cryptocurrency printing lower lows between Sept. 25 and Oct. 22. During the same period, the Relative Strength Index formed higher lows, creating what technical analysts call a bullish divergence. This pattern often appears when selling momentum weakens before a reversal, though it requires price confirmation to validate.
Ether currently trades within an ascending triangle formation.
This pattern typically resolves upward once the asset clears resistance at the triangle's upper boundary. Two critical price zones stand at $3,989 and $4,137, both aligned with Fibonacci retracement levels that technical traders monitor. Breaking through either level would signal a triangle breakout and potentially trigger additional buying.
The path forward depends on whether Ether can achieve a daily closing price above $4,137. Such a move would require approximately 7% gains from current levels and would confirm the breakout scenario. If successful, subsequent price targets could reach $4,495 or extend to $4,950 in coming weeks, based on the triangle's measured move calculation.
Failure to maintain support at $3,806 would undermine the bullish case. A breakdown below that level could push Ether toward $3,511 or potentially $3,355, invalidating the ascending triangle pattern and introducing renewed downside risk.
Understanding Key Cryptocurrency Metrics
Whale activity refers to transactions and holdings by addresses containing large amounts of cryptocurrency, typically millions of dollars worth. These entities can influence price action through their buying or selling decisions. HODL Waves represent a blockchain analysis method that segments supply by the length of time addresses have held their tokens without moving them. The Relative Strength Index measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings below 30 suggesting oversold conditions and above 70 indicating overbought territory.
Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines derived from the mathematical Fibonacci sequence, used by traders to identify potential support and resistance zones. An ascending triangle is a chart pattern characterized by a flat upper boundary and rising lower trendline, generally interpreted as a continuation or reversal pattern depending on the prior trend.
Closing Thoughts
Ethereum faces competing forces as substantial whale accumulation meets persistent selling from shorter-term holders. The technical setup provides a framework for potential upside, but confirmation through price action above key resistance levels remains necessary. Whether the cryptocurrency can overcome the current distribution from smaller traders will likely determine its direction in the near term.
Ethereum whales accumulate $660 million while retail traders exit their positions near $3,875.