Technical Analysis Suggests Bullish Reversal for ETH/BTC Pair
Ethereum's Ether (ETH) token is showing signs of a potential rally of over 80% against Bitcoin (BTC) by 2026, according to a classic bullish reversal scenario developing on its long-term charts. Current analysis of ETH/BTC charts indicates a possible move toward the 0.059–0.063 BTC range in 2026. However, a rejection at the long-term trendline could lead to the pair returning to the 0.0175 BTC level.
Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Emerges on ETH/BTC Chart
As of December, the ETH/BTC 2-week chart has displayed a textbook inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) formation. This pattern is a classic bullish reversal signal that typically appears after prolonged downtrends.
The pattern's left shoulder was formed during a period of weakness in late 2024. This was followed by an aggressive capitulation in April 2025, which created the head around the 0.0176 BTC mark. The subsequent recovery established a higher low in the fourth quarter of 2025, completing the right shoulder.
The neckline of this pattern was identified around 0.0400 BTC, situated between the 50-period exponential moving average (red) and the 200-period exponential moving average (blue).
A decisive breakout above this neckline is expected to confirm the IH&S pattern. This confirmation would likely pave the way for a measured move, projecting the ETH/BTC pair toward 0.063 BTC by 2026. This upside target represents an 80% increase from the ETH/BTC rates recorded as of Thursday.
Historical Parallels: ETH/BTC's 2020 Parabolic Surge
The current rebound in ETH/BTC bears a close resemblance to the breakout that followed its accumulation phase in 2019-2020. During that period, the pair experienced a rally of nearly 450% after bottoming out within the same 0.0160–0.0200 BTC demand zone.
Ether's recovery in 2025 originated from this identical structural floor. Currently, the price is pressing into the same early-stage resistance cluster, indicated by red circles in the accompanying chart, which preceded the parabolic expansion seen in 2020. If this fractal pattern continues to play out, ETH/BTC could climb toward the 0.059 BTC Fibonacci zone, a level consistent with the IH&S breakout trajectory heading into 2026.
Overcoming the Long-Term Downtrend Against Bitcoin
Despite the bullish technical signals, ETH bulls must still prove that the long-term downtrend against Bitcoin has concluded. Ether remains capped by a multiyear descending trendline that has successfully rejected every breakout attempt against Bitcoin since 2017.
A fresh failure to break through this resistance barrier would invalidate the IH&S and fractal setups. Such a scenario would increase the risk of a significant pullback, potentially sending the pair back toward the long-standing 0.0175 BTC support level in 2026.