Ethereum (ETH) price is showing renewed weakness after a second rejection at the 200-day moving average near $3,400. This dynamic resistance remains a structural barrier preventing ETH from gaining upward momentum.
With broader market conditions remaining uncertain and Ethereum unable to break through key technical zones, the probability of a deeper correction is increasing. As price compresses beneath the 200 MA, the asset appears poised to continue forming a bearish trading range unless buyers reclaim critical levels.
Ethereum Price Key Technical Points
- •Two consecutive rejections from the 200 MA at $3,400 reinforce strong bearish resistance.
- •Major resistance at $3,580 aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, forming a textbook lower-high zone.
- •Key support sits at $2,500, in confluence with the Value Area Low, signalling a likely retest if bearish momentum persists.
Ethereum’s inability to break above the 200 MA has become a defining characteristic of the current market structure. The price has now rejected “to the dollar” on two separate attempts, each time triggering sell-side momentum and pushing ETH back into a downward trajectory. Dynamic moving average resistance often reflects systemic weakness, and in this case, repeated rejections indicate a lack of bullish strength to reclaim the trend.
Above the 200 MA sits the next major high-time-frame resistance level at $3,580. This zone aligns closely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, creating a strong confluence area where many traders expect a lower high to form. As Ethereum remains within a macro bearish trend of consecutive lower highs and lower lows, this region represents a structural pivot. Unless price breaks decisively above $3,580, the larger downtrend remains fully intact.
On the downside, the next significant high-timeframe support level is at $2,500. This level also aligns with the Value Area Low (VAL) of the current market profile, underscoring its likely role as the price’s destination if weakness continues.
The compressive effect of the 200 MA is becoming increasingly evident. As price continues to trade below this dynamic level, sellers remain firmly in control, and bullish attempts lack the strength to sustain a breakout. This environment often precedes downside volatility expansions, particularly when macro trends and market structure both lean bearish.
Furthermore, Ethereum’s broader chart still reflects a macro downtrend, with lower highs forming each time the asset rallies. These failed rallies often appear corrective rather than impulsive, signaling exhaustion rather than accumulation.
If the current rejection at $3,400 is indeed another macro lower high, as the structure suggests, ETH may be preparing for a deeper move that could push toward or even beneath the $2,500 support. This scenario is reinforced by Ethereum ETFs posting $75.21 million in outflows with no new inflows as price stalls near $3,000, highlighting weakening investor appetite.
Volume dynamics support this view. Recent attempts to break the 200 MA have been met with declining bullish volume, while sell-side responses appear more aggressive. This imbalance reinforces the expectation that downward continuation remains more probable than a sudden reversal.
What to Expect in the Coming Price Action
Ethereum is likely to continue consolidating between $3,580 and $2,500, with bearish pressure dominant as long as price remains beneath the 200 MA. A deeper correction toward the $2,500 Value Area Low appears increasingly likely unless bulls reclaim and close above the 200 MA with strong volume.