While volatility has cooled compared to earlier rallies, the underlying structure suggests ETH may still be in a preparatory phase before a larger move.
Key Takeaways:
- •Ethereum market cap remains above the 21 EMA on the three-week chart, a historically bullish condition.
- •Analysts see current price action as reaccumulation, not distribution near a top.
- •Upside continuation is viewed as the higher-probability outcome unless key support levels fail.
Market Structure Points to Reaccumulation, Not Distribution
Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO highlights Ethereum’s market capitalization rather than spot price as a key signal. On the three-week timeframe, ETH market cap continues to hold above the 21-period exponential moving average, a level historically associated with expansion phases. The structure also shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, while price compresses below long-term resistance.
This type of compression, according to the analysis, is typically constructive. Instead of sellers overwhelming demand, the market appears to be absorbing supply while respecting an upward macro trendline. In past cycles, similar conditions above the 21 EMA on higher timeframes preceded sustained expansion phases, while decisive breaks below that level marked the start of prolonged bear markets.
At present, Ethereum remains above that threshold, suggesting support is being defended rather than lost.
Two Paths Forward, With Upside Favored
From a scenario perspective, the bullish case carries higher probability. A successful break above the historical resistance band could open the door to an expansion toward new cycle highs, reinforcing Ethereum’s leadership role within the broader crypto market.
The bearish alternative remains on the table but is viewed as less likely. That scenario would require a clean loss of the 21 EMA on the three-week chart, which could validate a deeper correction toward lower trend support. As it stands, analysts emphasize that markets operate on probabilities, not certainty, and current conditions still favor continuation to the upside as long as key levels hold.
Rainbow Chart Echoes Accumulation Narrative
A similar conclusion comes from Merlijn The Trader, who focuses on Ethereum’s long-term rainbow chart model. According to this framework, ETH is not yet in a typical take-profit zone. Instead, it remains in regions historically associated with accumulation, holding, and early expansion preparation.
ETHEREUM ISN'T IN TAKE-PROFIT TERRITORY YET.
Rainbow Chart suggests $ETH is still in:
– Accumulation
– HODL
– Expansion preparationMost traders wait for confirmation and hype.
Smart money builds positions quietly.Trade with your head.
Conviction is built early, not at the… pic.twitter.com/lhdSG5C3U3— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) January 17, 2026
The takeaway is behavioral as much as technical. While many traders wait for confirmation and widespread enthusiasm, long-term positioning often happens quietly during periods of consolidation. In this view, conviction is built before momentum becomes obvious, not after prices accelerate.
Taken together, both analyses point to the same theme. Ethereum’s current pause looks less like a warning sign and more like a structural reset within an ongoing macro uptrend.