ETH could skyrocket as high as $13,000 this cycle if it follows a similar pattern to 2021, according to analysis.
The asset is currently trading at a level 92% above its long-term 200-week moving average, which is currently $2,400, according to DeFi Report founder Michael Nadeau on Wednesday.
In the last bull market cycle, ETH peaked at just above $4,870 on Nov. 10, trading 492% over its long-term moving average. Running various scenarios based on this moving technical indicator provides some interesting price predictions.
If the asset trades at just 200% above the 200-week MA, it will reach $7,300. At 400% above the long-term moving average, it will be above $12,000, which is only 170% above current levels.
Ether has already gained more than that since its dip below $1,500 in April.
Volatile Path to Five Figures
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has predicted a super cycle leading to five-figure Ether prices, but the path to that will be extremely volatile.
Ether plummeted 94% from its 2018 peak and surrendered 80% of its value in 2022, so another sharp downturn isn’t just possible, it’s probable.
The analysis provided a “base case” where ETH trades 250% above its 200 WMA, which puts it at a cycle top of $8,500. This aligns with realized price reaching $3,000, which would put ETH at $8,700, assuming a ratio of 2.9.
If Ether gets to 35% of Bitcoin’s market cap (it is currently 23.4%) and BTC reaches $150,000 this cycle, it would put prices at $8,600, the analyst said.
Ethereum is repeating 2021, observed another popular trader on Wednesday. Back then, reclaiming the previous all-time highs “triggered a +250% explosion,” he said before adding:
“Now, ETH is testing the same level again. Same structure. Same energy. Only difference this time? ETFs and institutions are in the mix.”
Earlier this week, Grayscale launched the first Ether staking ETF in the US, and digital asset treasuries have accumulated 4.7% of the entire supply in just a few months.
ETHEREUM IS REPEATING 2021.
Back then, reclaiming the previous ATH triggered a +250% explosion.
Now, $ETH is testing the same level again.
Same structure. Same energy.Only difference this time? ETFs and institutions are in the mix. pic.twitter.com/Tp9A4ipZgY
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) October 8, 2025
ETH Price Outlook
Ether is still consolidating, trading within a range-bound channel that formed in early August.
From an intraday high above $4,500 in late trading on Wednesday, the asset has dipped back toward $4,400 in early trading in Asia on Thursday.
With sideways trading now lasting two months, the asset appears coiled and ready for a breakout, and all indicators suggest it will move into price discovery as the bull market is not over yet.