The purchase, sourced from Galaxy Digital, suggests that large-scale investors are steadily accumulating even as retail traders grow increasingly cautious.
Recent on-chain data paints a clear picture of this shift. Galaxy Digital transferred two separate tranches of Ethereum to BitMine’s main address, reigniting speculation that major players are positioning ahead of a broader market recovery. For BitMine, the transaction adds to a long record of aggressive accumulation, following earlier purchases exceeding $820 million in ETH.
Institutions Step In as Retail Traders Retreat
The mood among retail traders tells a very different story. According to Kalshi’s prediction markets, expectations that Ethereum will cross $5,000 by the end of 2025 have fallen to 34%, down from more than 40% only weeks ago. This fading optimism mirrors the broader unease in global markets, where investors are still digesting mixed economic data and an increasingly uncertain path for Federal Reserve policy.
Jerome Powell’s latest remarks that further interest rate cuts are “unlikely this year” have further tempered enthusiasm. For retail traders already wary of volatility, the combination of cautious monetary signals and weaker on-chain metrics has led to reduced participation – the opposite of what institutions like BitMine appear to be doing.
Quiet Accumulation Could Tighten Supply
Market analysts often view such opposing behaviors as early signs of market divergence. Historically, institutional accumulation during periods of retail apathy has preceded major reversals, particularly in assets with constrained supply dynamics. Ethereum’s growing network of staking, layer-2 solutions, and token burns could magnify that effect if accumulation continues.
Ted Pillows, a market strategist, noted that BitMine’s weekly Ethereum purchases have reportedly ranged between $200 million and $300 million. He believes that if similar inflows persist, a tightening supply could quickly push prices upward once sentiment shifts. “A few more whales like BitMine, and the market’s tone could change overnight,” he explained.
Analysts Still Expect Ethereum to Lead the Next Cycle
Despite short-term hesitancy, several analysts maintain that Ethereum remains one of the strongest bets in digital assets. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted the network’s expanding ecosystem and upcoming Fusaka upgrade as key catalysts for renewed momentum. He envisions ETH surpassing its previous highs and potentially moving well above the $5,000 threshold once risk appetite returns to the market.
The contrasting perspectives between prediction-market traders and institutional buyers underline a familiar cycle in crypto: fear at the bottom, accumulation by smart money, and eventual recovery. If history repeats, the latest $29 million move by BitMine could represent an early spark in the next major Ethereum rally.
At press time, Ethereum hovers near $3,780 – a modest daily decline of about 1.2% – but the quiet buildup of long-term positions may be telling a much bigger story.