- •Ethena’s Elliott Wave pattern signals a continuing Wave C phase following the invalidation of the prior bullish setup.
- •Key support levels are identified near $0.45–$0.47 and $0.32–$0.35, aligning with Fibonacci retracement zones.
- •Ethena’s $4B market cap and strong TVL ratio point to resilient fundamentals amid ongoing short-term corrections.
Ethena’s market momentum has shifted into a corrective phase, with technical indicators suggesting one more downward leg before a possible recovery begins. The asset remains in focus as traders monitor key support zones for structural confirmation.
Market Structure Shifts After Bullish Setup Fails
The latest 4‑hour chart shared by Nology shows Ethena ($ENA) transitioning from a previously anticipated bullish impulse to a corrective structure. The analyst acknowledged that the earlier forecast “didn’t come to fruition,” revising the count to favor one more leg lower to complete Wave C. This shift reflects a disciplined adherence to technical structure rather than directional bias.
According to the updated Elliott Wave interpretation, the chart now forms a textbook A–B–C correction after a rally that topped near $0.80. Wave A appears completed, Wave B has formed a mild recovery, and Wave C is unfolding. The overlapping price action and soft momentum validate the view that the market remains corrective rather than impulsive.
Two potential demand zones emerge as critical. The first lies between $0.45 and $0.47, aligning with structural support and the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement. The second, deeper zone around $0.32–$0.35, marks a measured projection for a complete Wave C extension. Price reactions in these regions may determine whether the current correction ends shallow or extends into a broader consolidation phase.
Technical Indicators Reinforce Corrective Bias
The moving averages currently act as short‑term resistance. The 50‑period and 100‑period EMAs cluster around $0.56, maintaining downward pressure on intraday rallies. Price remains below both averages, reinforcing the notion that any upward movement should be viewed as counter‑trend until confirmation of strength appears.
At the same time, the price action has shown temporary stability near the $0.55 mark. ENA increased by 3.89 % on the day and closed at $0.5599 with a market capitalization of 4 billion and a fully diluted market value of approximately 8.39 billion. Nevertheless, trading volume in 24 hours has fallen by more than 20 %, which signals less momentum in speculations during consolidation.
Nology describes this phase as “a trade, not a hold,” signaling a tactical approach with defined risk parameters. The suggestion that the C wave may “subdivide further” implies openness to a prolonged correction, potentially evolving into a double zigzag or complex flat before stabilization.
Broader Metrics Reflect Underlying Market Stability
Despite short‑term corrections, Ethena maintains strong fundamentals. The protocol’s total value locked (TVL) stands at $14.79 billion, giving a market‑cap‑to‑TVL ratio of 0.27, which suggests a balanced valuation relative to locked liquidity. Circulating supply remains at 7.15 billion ENA, nearly half of the total issuance, providing a steady base for liquidity and staking.
Ethena’s synthetic dollar framework continues to attract institutional and retail attention for its stable, non‑bank‑dependent model. The growing holder base—now at nearly 79 000 addresses—indicates expanding participation despite market fluctuations. Analysts and commentators, such as Discover Crypto, point to the project’s high‑yield staking mechanisms as a driver of sustained interest.
Overall, Ethena’s structure remains corrective but contained within key technical boundaries. The market’s reaction within the upcoming demand zones will shape near‑term direction. A recovery above $0.60 supported by rising volume could confirm a structural reversal, while failure to defend lower supports may extend the correction toward the $0.32 area. Nology’s revised outlook emphasizes measured participation and structural awareness, aligning with a veteran trader’s approach to evolving market conditions.