Revised Outlook on Bitcoin Price Target
BitMine chair Tom Lee has scaled back on one of his most ambitious Bitcoin forecasts, easing away from his widely discussed $250,000 year-end target and instead suggesting only a "maybe" that the cryptocurrency could revisit its October all-time high of $125,100 before December closes.
This shift came during an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, marking the first clear sign that Lee has tempered a projection he strongly reiterated throughout early 2025.
“I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,” he said.
The revised tone contrasts sharply with his earlier stance.
Lee had consistently argued that Bitcoin could surge to a quarter-million dollars by the end of 2025, even as other analysts warned the conditions required for such a rally were increasingly unlikely.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz was one of several industry leaders who pushed back in October, saying “crazy stuff” would need to occur for Bitcoin to reach that level.
Bitcoin's Performance and Market Dynamics
Bitcoin has struggled through the past year, falling around 1.85% over 12 months, although Lee emphasized that the cryptocurrency’s biggest moves often come in short bursts.
He pointed out Bitcoin’s historical tendency to generate the majority of its annual upside during roughly 10 major trading days, a pattern cited by several market executives.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley noted in early 2024 that missing Bitcoin’s “best 10 days” in any given year historically results in investors missing nearly all of its gains.
Data from 2024 underscores that trend.
The cryptocurrency’s strongest 10 days delivered a combined return of 52%, while the remaining days posted an average return of -15%.
Despite the broader downtrend since Oct. 10, driven in part by a $19 billion crypto-market liquidation following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, Bitcoin briefly regained momentum this week.
It climbed back above $90,000 on Wednesday after spending six straight days under that threshold.
This recovery comes during what has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month.
CoinGlass data shows November has delivered the highest average monthly performance for Bitcoin since 2013.
Analyst Perspectives and Historical Predictions
Still, analysts remain split on how the market may evolve across the final stretch of 2025.
Economist Timothy Peterson said on Monday that Bitcoin’s bottom may already be in — or could arrive within days — suggesting the recent correction may soon give way to new upside attempts.
For Lee, however, the mixed track record of past predictions looms over his newest outlook.
In January 2018, he said Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022.
Instead, the asset took three additional years to hit that milestone, only reaching it in October 2025.
He has also delivered some notably accurate calls.
In July 2017, Lee projected that Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022 in a base-case scenario, with a more optimistic case placing the potential high around $55,000.
Bitcoin later hit $20,000 in December 2020 and surged to $55,000 in March 2021, aligning closely with his projections.
Looking Ahead for Bitcoin Holders
As 2026 approaches, Lee maintains that some of Bitcoin’s strongest moments may still be ahead.
“I still think some of those best days are going to happen before year-end,” he said, noting that 35 days remained in the calendar year.
For now, Bitcoin holders will continue to speculate on whether another late-year rally materializes — or whether 2025 ends as another example of the cryptocurrency outpacing forecasters or proving them overly optimistic.