Market Turmoil and Ethereum's Resilience
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline on December 1, 2025, dropping from $93,000 to a precarious $86,000. This significant drop was attributed to shocks from the Bank of Japan's monetary policy adjustments, a recent decentralized finance (DeFi) hack on Yearn Finance, and substantial spot ETF outflows totaling $450 million over the past week. The broader cryptocurrency market cap also saw a 5% decrease, falling below $3.1 trillion, as leveraged long positions were liquidated, leading to a cascade of over $2 billion in liquidations.
Amidst this widespread market downturn, Ethereum demonstrated remarkable resilience. While Bitcoin bled value, Ethereum remained relatively stable, trading flat around $2,830 to $2,850, marking a mere 0.5% decrease on the day. This stability is further highlighted by the ETH/BTC ratio, a key metric for assessing the relative performance of the two leading cryptocurrencies. The ratio held steady at approximately 0.033, defying the downward pressure on Bitcoin and indicating Ethereum's relative strength even as Bitcoin's dominance briefly surged to 58%.
Analyst Sentiment and Historical Precedents
Veteran trader Michaël van de Poppe observed this divergence in a widely shared post on X (formerly Twitter). He noted that Ethereum was "nicely consolidating" and remaining flat against Bitcoin despite Bitcoin's significant crash. Van de Poppe characterized this as a "strong sign," suggesting that Ethereum might be bottoming and poised for outperformance. His analysis was accompanied by a chart illustrating Bitcoin's sharp decline against Ethereum's more stable horizontal channel, a pattern often seen before a period of relative outperformance.
Historical market cycles, such as the 2017 ICO boom and the 2021 DeFi summer, have shown that periods of ETH/BTC ratio breakouts often precede significant altcoin rallies. Current market indicators suggest a potential repeat of this pattern. Ethereum spot ETFs have recorded inflows of $120 million in the past day, corporate treasuries are increasing their holdings to 2.1% of the total supply (up from 1.8% in October), and staking yields remain attractive at 4.2%, with a record 35 million ETH currently locked in staking.
Upcoming Catalysts and Future Outlook
Several catalysts are aligning for Ethereum. The upcoming Fusaka upgrade, scheduled to go live on the mainnet on December 3, promises to increase block capacity to 150 million gas per block. This scalability enhancement is expected to significantly boost the performance of Layer-2 solutions and decentralized applications (dApps). In contrast, Bitcoin faces ongoing macroeconomic pressures, including the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve today, with yields showing signs of creeping higher.
While a deeper Bitcoin capitulation scenario, potentially pushing its price down to $80,000, could drag the entire market lower, and lingering regulatory uncertainties, such as those stemming from proposed crypto reserve plans by Donald Trump, remain a factor, on-chain data suggests accumulating activity for Ethereum. Exchange balances for ETH are at 18-month lows, and whale wallet holdings have increased by 12% week-over-week. Van de Poppe's assessment appears to be based on established pattern recognition rather than mere speculation. As Bitcoin navigates its current challenges, Ethereum's stable posture positions it for a potential decoupling in December. A breach of the ETH/BTC ratio above 0.035 could signal a significant upward movement for Ethereum, potentially reaching $3,500 and outperforming Bitcoin. The whispers of an altcoin season are growing louder, indicating a potentially significant shift in market dynamics.