It’s been a strange month for crypto, one filled with endless ups and downs that have mercifully now flipped to the former. Make no mistake, Uptober is very much alive. While retail deserves its share of credit for buying the dip and having the conviction to hodl through those red October days, much of the price support has come courtesy of Wall Street. Without institutions with ETF allocations to fill, a rare Downtober would have almost certainly spawned.
As of October 27, the price of BTC is almost at parity with where it started the month, during which time crypto ETF flows have been almost neutral. That’s no coincidence. BTC ETF inflows increased by $91M in the last 24 hours, almost canceling out the $94M of ETH outflows. Total net Bitcoin ETF flows are down slightly this month, a trend mirrored by ETH, but are trending upwards again as October looks to finish on a high.
It’s evident that the price of BTC and ETH is now closely correlated with institutional demand. Thankfully, most funds appear happy to hold. They’re in it for the long haul, and have little interest in whether “Uptober” comes to pass. Retail, however, are Uptober maxis, and have been trading hard as crypto’s milestone month plays out.
ETFs Take Center Stage in Crypto’s Seasonal Play
Historically, Uptober has been fueled by positive trader sentiment and self-fulfilling prophecies: number go up because the people believe it will. Bitcoin has closed higher in 10 of the last 12 Octobers, often delivering double-digit returns. This year, however, spot ETFs – approved in early 2024 – are injecting a new dynamic.
As Lingling Jiang, Partner at DWF Labs, observes: “This is the first Uptober where spot ETFs exist. In the past, seasonality was driven mainly by traders and sentiment. Now, ETF flows are part of the picture. At the moment, ETFs are seeing net outflows, which tells us institutions are cautious. The implication is that Uptober will be a test of whether retail optimism can outweigh institutional caution.”
She adds: “If ETF flows reverse and turn positive, the rally could be amplified. If they stay negative, Uptober may not look like the past. This year it is not just about history repeating. It is about whether new institutional flows reinforce or blunt old patterns.”
Jiang highlights a pivotal shift. Early in the month, Bitcoin spiked to an all-time high above $125,000 on October 6, driven by initial enthusiasm. But subsequent dips, including an 11% drop triggered by geopolitical news, including proposed tariffs on Chinese imports, tested the market. ETF flows have been a barometer of institutional sentiment, with mixed signals throughout October.
ETFs as the Institutional Pulse
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen renewed net inflows this week, a strong rebound after early outflows wiped out initial gains mid-month. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has led the pack, contributing significantly to the monthly total, while Fidelity and ARK also posted solid gains. Cumulative BTC inflows now stand at $62B, and while early buyers such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy are up bigly, latecomers like Metaplanet have still to book profits. Institutions that have been late to the game aren’t about to rage quit just because of a little choppiness – they’re just getting started.
Admittedly, early October saw $326 million in net outflows on October 13 alone, contributing to a brief $750 million drawdown that erased prior inflows. But the week ending October 24 brought in $447 million, boosting Bitcoin’s recovery above $110K. These flows have absorbed selling pressure, with institutions vacuuming up BTC during dips, evident in Bitcoin’s stabilization around $115K in recent sessions. The price of Bitcoin isn’t just good for measuring the mood of the broader crypto market: it’s also a shorthand for measuring the institutional appetite for crypto. BTC is the pulse by which Wall Street’s vital signs are monitored.
Right now, everything looks healthy: institutional caution early in the month tempered retail exuberance, but the ETF flow reversal has amplified the rally. Unlike past Uptobers that were reliant on trader psychology, this year’s version is testing whether ETF inflows can sustain momentum. In a month that’s had its share of negative news to contend with, the revelation that Mt Gox is delaying creditor payments for another year, pushing the deadline back to October 2026, has done the market no harm.
Smart Traders Follow the Flows
Despite fading mid-month, Uptober has returned with intent and looks poised to close out in the green. As usual, however, the spoils of war have not been evenly distributed. Top performing sectors have included ZK-based coins/privacy protocols, which are up an average of 25% in the last week. Launchpad and derivatives tokens are also performing well, suggesting that consumers are very much risk-on once again.
While retail does what retail does best, fighting it out in the trenches for quick wins and monster X’s, institutions are quietly doing their thing, supplying much of the demand for blue chips – BTC, ETH, and SOL mostly – that has absorbed the sell pressure and allowed crypto to push higher. It might not go down as a record October when the percentage gains are totted up at the end of the month, but it’s almost certain to be another Uptober. Considering where the market was mired just a fortnight ago, that’s quite the redemption arc.