Growing ETF Interest and Accumulation Trends
The increasing interest in newly introduced XRP spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) has intensified discussions about how quickly these products may remove liquid XRP from centralized exchanges. Analysts monitoring the early trading activity suggest that sustained ETF accumulation could meaningfully reduce the quantity of XRP available to retail markets, potentially influencing the token’s valuation. This development has raised questions about how such a scenario might affect investors holding moderate amounts of the digital asset, particularly those with 1,000 to 5,000 XRP.
Since their debut, XRP ETFs have attracted substantial inflows. Within the first eleven trading days, the four available products collectively gained approximately $666 million in net purchases. This figure has already surpassed the inflows recorded by the six Solana ETFs, which reached $618 million after twenty-three days. The pace of accumulation has prompted speculation that ETF issuers could, at some point, absorb a significant share of XRP held on centralized exchanges. This possibility has been highlighted by commentators who argue that persistent inflows could tighten supply conditions over time.
Estimating Exchange Reserve Depletion
Digital Perspectives founder Brad Kimes recently reviewed exchange liquidity estimates using Grok, which assessed XRP tokens that are accessible for active trading. According to the model’s response, major platforms such as Binance, Upbit, Bithumb, and OKX collectively hold between 5 and 6 billion XRP in liquid reserves as of late November 2025. The report also indicated that Binance controls the largest share, approximately 2.71 billion XRP. This figure has declined by roughly 400 million tokens between early October and mid-November, reflecting ongoing withdrawals and ETF-driven demand.
Grok further observed that exchanges lost about 73 million XRP in a single day during recent market activity, suggesting continued outflows and reduced selling pressure. Overall, the estimated 5 to 6 billion XRP in liquid supply represents around 9% to 11% of the circulating 56 billion tokens. To evaluate how quickly ETFs could remove this supply, the model reviewed inflows from Nov. 25 to 27. During this period, issuers received an average of $26 million per day. At an XRP price of $2.20, this equates to roughly 11.8 million XRP purchased daily.
Based on this rate, Grok estimated that clearing 5 billion XRP would take about 422 days, while removing 6 billion XRP would require approximately 506 days, placing the timeline between 14 and 17 months.
Projected Price Ranges Under Supply Reduction Scenarios
To understand the potential price impact, Google Gemini was consulted. The model emphasized that price responses to supply constraints tend to accelerate as available liquidity decreases. Gemini referenced a Bank of America analysis from 2021 showing that each $1 entering Bitcoin during constrained periods contributed significantly more to total market value. Using comparable assumptions, Gemini proposed several potential XRP price ranges if ETF accumulation removes most of the remaining liquid supply. The initial range falls between $8 and $13, assuming steady momentum.
We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1
— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
A deeper supply reduction could support valuations between $20 and $25, particularly if the broader market revalues major assets and Ethereum approaches a higher market capitalization. Gemini also outlined a more extreme case, where limited liquidity forces ETF issuers to purchase at progressively higher prices, which could push XRP above $50. Gemini suggested that such an increase could unfold across three stages within seventeen months: An initial accumulation period lifting XRP from $2.20 to around $5, a middle phase driving the price toward $15, and a final period characterized by accelerated increases into the $20 to $50+ region.
Impact on Investor Holdings
Current data indicates that 596,029 wallets contain between 1,000 and 5,000 XRP, making this one of the largest holder groups. Presently, 1,000 XRP is worth $2,210, and 5,000 XRP is worth around $11,050. If XRP reaches $50, 1,000 XRP would rise to $50,000, while 5,000 XRP would expand to $250,000. Even at a $20 price level, 1,000 XRP would be worth $20,000, and 5,000 XRP would be valued at $100,000. These estimates illustrate the scale of gains for holders if ETF accumulation significantly reduces supply.