Early Whale Owen Gunden Dumps Final 2,499 BTC as Market Turns ‘Extreme Bearish’

What Triggered Owen Gunden’s Full Exit From Bitcoin?

Owen Gunden, one of Bitcoin’s earliest and wealthiest holders, has fully liquidated his Bitcoin position as retail investors pull back and institutional ownership through spot ETFs reaches new highs. A wallet tagged to Gunden by Arkham Intelligence transferred its remaining 2,499 BTC to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken on Thursday. The final transfer, valued at roughly 228 million dollars, marks the complete unwinding of his holdings. In total, the wallet has sold approximately 11,000 BTC since Oct. 21 — a liquidation worth nearly 1.3 billion dollars.

Gunden’s exit aligns with a rapid deterioration in market sentiment. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, a gauge of market trend strength, has fallen to 20 out of 100, indicating “extreme bearish” conditions for the current cycle. The move is significant not only because of the dollar value involved but also because of who Gunden is. According to Arkham’s crypto millionaires list, he is the eighth-richest individual in the crypto industry with a net worth of about 561 million dollars. Gunden made his fortune as one of Bitcoin’s earliest arbitrage traders, operating on platforms such as Tradehill and the now-defunct Mt. Gox. During the early years of crypto trading, he reportedly moved tens of thousands of coins across exchanges, building a large onchain position before Bitcoin entered mainstream markets.

Is This a Signal of a Cycle Peak—or Something Else?

Gunden’s liquidation comes as fears grow that the Bitcoin bull cycle may be entering its late stages. Bitcoin’s price, recently hovering near 90,000 dollars, has faced continuous pressure from ETF outflows, softer retail participation and weakening momentum indicators. However, whale behavior is not always an accurate signal of cycle tops. Some major holders exit for liquidity, hedging or treasury reasons rather than macro predictions. Still, Gunden’s selloff stands out because of its timing with broader bearish developments:

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  ETF outflows exceed 2.8 billion dollars in November. Retail-driven selling has accelerated.
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  CryptoQuant’s sentiment index hits extreme bearish levels. Historically associated with late-stage corrections.
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  Bitcoin trades well below its October peak. Market momentum continues cooling.

While retail traders pull back, the institutional side tells a sharply different story.

Institutions Quietly Increase Their Hold on Bitcoin ETFs

Despite retail fear and whale liquidations, institutional ownership of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continues to rise. According to data from Bitcoin analyst Root, institutional ownership reached 40 percent on Wednesday — up from 27 percent during the second quarter of 2024. This figure is based on 13-F filings submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, though Root notes the real number is likely higher because only institutions managing more than 100 million dollars are required to file.

In other words, institutions are holding onto their positions while retail investors, family offices and shorter-term ETF traders are selling. The divergence between retail outflows and institutional accumulation has widened throughout November. The trend also suggests that large asset managers and sophisticated investors are treating volatility as a buying opportunity, even as sentiment metrics signal fear.

What Does Gunden’s Exit Mean for the Broader Market?

Gunden’s full liquidation stands out because early Bitcoin adopters rarely unwind their entire stacks. Many who accumulated coins during the early Mt. Gox era are long-term holders who treat BTC as long-duration wealth. His decision to step aside raises a few possibilities:

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  He may be signaling a view that the cycle peak is near. Whales sometimes exit when liquidity is high and buyers remain active.
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  Portfolio restructuring could be a factor. Some large holders rotate into newer assets, private investments or fiat opportunities.
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  Tax or estate planning may play a role. Billion-dollar liquidity events often occur for reasons unrelated to price outlook.

Still, the timing coincides with the sharpest divergence between institutional and retail flows in ETF history. While whales like Gunden take profits, institutions — many of which operate multi-year strategies — continue absorbing supply. This divergence underscores a defining feature of the current cycle: Bitcoin is shifting further into institutional hands, even as high-net-worth early adopters and retail investors rotate out.

The Road Ahead: Distribution or Structural Maturity?

If institutions continue increasing their share of spot ETF ownership while whales exit, Bitcoin’s market composition may start resembling traditional asset classes dominated by long-term asset managers. That can stabilize long-run trends but amplify short-term volatility when retail panic meets institutional accumulation.

For now, Gunden’s exit adds another datapoint to a market already wrestling with sentiment lows, ETF selling pressure and a broader fear of cycle exhaustion. But history suggests that large-scale distribution from early adopters into institutional hands has often preceded new periods of market maturity. Whether this marks the end of the cycle or a deep mid-cycle correction remains uncertain — but the investor base is clearly changing.