Dogecoin is currently trading at approximately $0.173, experiencing a 3.17% decrease on the daily basis. On-chain statistics indicate widespread distribution by whales and low market sentiment. Traders are anticipating potential short-term volatility as the asset has dropped 30 percent over the last 30 days and 45 percent year-to-date, with a weak support level at $0.170.
Whale Distribution Pressures Market Stability
On-chain data reveals that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE have sold over 3 billion tokens in the past month. This significant distribution, also highlighted by market analyst Ali (@ali_charts), aligns with a substantial price retracement from the $0.067 area to new monthly lows. This activity represents profit-taking by mid-sized holders, which is typically seen as a measure of broader market confidence.
In mid-August, whale balances remained stable, with prices hovering near $0.065-$0.067. However, the distribution observed in September led to increased volatility and a loss of price momentum. Any short-term price surges were quickly followed by fresh selling, suggesting that whales capitalized on temporary gains to divest their positions.
By late October, the price decline intensified as supply continued to enter the market. DOGE dropped to the $0.059 zone before showing early signs of stabilization. This pattern often signifies the final phase of distribution before a period of equilibrium. The recent flattening of whale balances suggests that large holders might pause further selling if prices consolidate above key support levels.
Trader Positioning Shows Bullish Bias Despite Decline
Derivative data from Coinglass presents a contrasting narrative beneath the surface. Long/short ratios on major exchanges indicate that market participants remain largely bullish despite persistent downward price pressure. Binance reports a 2.33 account ratio for DOGE/USDT pairs, and top trader positions show a ratio of 3.45. On OKX, the ratio stands at 2.69, suggesting that the majority of traders anticipate a price rebound in the near future.
This optimism emerges at a time when DOGE has experienced nearly a third depreciation in the last month. Such asymmetric positioning can be risky, as crowded long trades often lead to rapid liquidations during further price declines. Recent estimates indicate that over $26,000 was liquidated in the last hour and close to $1 million in four hours, predominantly from short positions, as minor price jumps startled bearish traders.
While short liquidations point to temporary upside volatility, the overall trend remains weak. A sustainable recovery will likely require a shift in whale behavior and a revival of trading volumes, confirming renewed market participation.
Liquidity and Volume Trends Indicate Market Hesitation
Trading volumes have significantly decreased in tandem with price action. On Binance, 24-hour trading volume is approximately 777 million, a reduction of over 42 percent. Similarly, OKX reports around 582 million. This decline suggests that a substantial number of market participants are observing from the sidelines, awaiting a clearer market direction.
The decrease in trading activity often precedes a period of price consolidation or accumulation. As per on-chain data, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE have sold over 3 billion tokens in the past month. This massive distribution, also noted by market analyst Ali, is consistent with the significant price retracement observed from the $0.067 area to new monthly lows. This indicates profit-taking by mid-sized holders, which is typically viewed as a measure of broader market confidence. The reduction in activity often precedes a phase of price compression or accumulation.
Dogecoin remains down 30% over 30 days and 45% year-to-date, reflecting an extended correction following previous rallies. Despite this, long ratios indicate continued optimism among derivative traders. This contradiction between price performance and trader positioning creates an environment where any sharp price movement could trigger cascading liquidations in either direction.
The $0.170 support level now serves as a critical zone for price stability. If DOGE holds above this range and trading volume returns, a recovery toward $0.180 could materialize. Failure to sustain this support would likely extend the downtrend and intensify volatility as liquidations increase in over-leveraged positions.