Dogecoin price metrics hint at early-cycle reset, key barrier at $0.20

Traders observe that Dogecoin’s price cycle metrics have reset, characterized by subdued valuation, a rise in active addresses, and fresh whale accumulation. However, approximately 11.7 billion DOGE situated near $0.20 present a cap on potential upside.

Dogecoin price is trading near recent levels, with technical and on-chain indicators suggesting an improved market structure compared to previous bear cycles, according to analysis shared by cryptocurrency traders.

Trader Cryptollica presented a long-term monthly Dogecoin chart utilizing the Mayer Multiple indicator, which incorporates 200- and 50-period moving averages with a 2.4 threshold. The current reading of 0.66005 is significantly lower than the spikes above 5 that coincided with the 2017 and 2021 market peaks. This data suggests that Dogecoin has not yet reached the overheated conditions historically associated with major market tops.

Cryptollica also shared an Alphractal chart titled “Dogecoin: Number of Days Spent at a Loss.” This chart overlays Dogecoin’s price with a histogram illustrating the duration coins have been held in unrealized loss. Previous cycle lows, observed around 2014-2015 and in the post-2021 period, showed extended peaks above approximately 1,200-1,500 days at a loss. The latest data indicates that this metric has compressed towards the lower end of the scale, resembling early reset phases that preceded previous advances, according to the analysis.

Dogecoin Price Could Be Heading Towards $0.20, According to Analysts

Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a sharp rebound in network activity, citing data from Glassnode. Martinez reported, “Dogecoin just saw 71,589 active addresses. The biggest spike since September.” The accompanying chart showed daily active addresses ranging around 45,000-47,500 from early November while the price experienced a decline in recent weeks. On December 3, active addresses surged, signaling broader participation, according to the data.

Martinez also noted whale accumulation patterns. In a post featuring a Santiment chart of balances held by addresses with between 1 million and 100 million coins, he reported that 480 million Dogecoin were purchased by whales within a 48-hour period. Holdings in this category had trended downwards from approximately 35.6 billion in mid-October to below 28 billion by late November, indicating sustained distribution. In recent days, holdings have risen to roughly 28.45 billion as the price rebounded, confirming renewed accumulation among large holders, according to the chart.

A third chart from Martinez, titled “Dogecoin: Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap,” identified key resistance around the 20-cent level, where approximately 11.72 billion Dogecoin were accumulated, according to Glassnode data. The heatmap highlights a dense band above this resistance level, marking a significant realized-price node where a large volume of coins transition from loss to breakeven as the spot price revisits that level.

The combination of subdued valuation on the Mayer Multiple, a reset in days-at-loss metrics, the largest active-address spike since September, recent whale accumulation of 480 million coins, and a defined cost-basis resistance zone forms the basis for the analysis, according to the traders. Analysts stated that whether higher price levels are reached will depend on the market’s ability to absorb the approximately 11.72 billion-coin supply at resistance and sustain recent improvements in on-chain activity and large-holder demand.