Spotlight on BTC Price Upside Imbalances
Bitcoin started the new week with renewed strength, staging a rebound past $111,000. The cryptocurrency experienced a volatile Sunday weekly close, finishing at $108,600 before a brief retracement. Buyer strength resurfaced in the early Asia trading session, pushing BTC to the $111,000 mark.
Traders anticipate continued volatility in the coming days. Trader CrypNuevo suggested in an X post that a short squeeze could characterize the remainder of October, noting a significant cluster of short liquidations between $116,000 and $117,000. He identified "upside imbalances" as key levels to monitor.
Crypto investor Ted Pillows highlighted $112,000 as a crucial reclaim level. He believes that with easing US-China trade tensions, Bitcoin could see further rallies.
Attention is also focused on gold's performance and Bitcoin's potential to follow it to new all-time highs. XAU/USD consolidated after hitting a record $4,380 per ounce on Friday. Trader Daan Crypto Trades observed that Bitcoin has been lackluster compared to gold's performance this year, suggesting that a cooling off in gold prices could lead to capital flowing back into riskier assets like equities and cryptocurrencies.
“Especially if Gold cools off for some time, we could see some of that capital flow back into more riskier assets. Equities would be the main beneficiary. Bitcoin & Crypto would likely take a small piece of the pie as well.”
Bitcoin’s $102,000 Binance Wick Remains Unfilled
Despite the recent rebound, bearish predictions persist for Bitcoin, with the Oct. 10 meltdown significantly impacting some traders' market outlook. Trader Roman, who has expressed concerns about Bitcoin's fundamental strength, argues that BTC/USD is facing declining volume despite recent price increases. He also points to longer-term Relative Strength Index (RSI) values indicating a bearish divergence.
$BTC 1M
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) October 13, 2025
- Record high MACD
- Bear divs RSI/MACD
- Low volume + price up (bullish Price action exhaustion)
- Momentum loss
- Record high Profit taking
Better to be safe than sorry here and take profits on long term positions. The bull run won’t last much longer. pic.twitter.com/bKbdDydjG6
Roman suggests that a potential rebound, even to $118,000, could form a head and shoulders trend reversal pattern. He noted that a break of this level would invalidate the pattern, though he acknowledged the possibility of consolidation.
While the four-hour RSI showed a bullish divergence after the drop to $102,000 on Binance, expectations remain that the market will eventually move to "fill" that daily candle wick. Roman stated that the recent price move above $111,000, with decreasing volume, supports a bearish retest theory.
“Still need to fill that wick!”
CPI Due Despite US Government Shutdown
A significant macroeconomic event is scheduled for the upcoming week: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a key inflation gauge, will be released on Friday, despite the ongoing US government shutdown. This marks the first Friday CPI release since 2018.
The timing is crucial as it precedes the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting just five days later. Macroeconomic data releases are highly important to Fed officials, especially given that the shutdown has delayed most other inflation data publications. The Labor Department has indicated that no other releases will be rescheduled until the shutdown concludes.
“This comes during a highly pivotal time for the Fed as they debate whether to continue rate cuts or not. This is drawing speculation of a ‘bullish’ September CPI report.”
A lower-than-expected CPI print could boost risk assets by increasing the likelihood of a rate cut, which would, in turn, stimulate liquidity inflows. Current data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool suggests that markets anticipate a 0.25% rate cut on Oct. 29. The US-China trade war remains a factor, with markets closely monitoring President Donald Trump's statements regarding potential trade deals.
Crypto Risk-Taking Gradually Returns
New data indicates a gradual return of leverage to the crypto market following the earlier $19 billion rout. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin leverage began to rebound shortly after the Oct. 10 liquidation cascade.
An analyst at CryptoQuant noted that after a sharp decline, the leverage index started rising again, moving from lows near 0.148 to approximately 0.166 by the end of the previous week. This increase suggests a resurgence of leveraged activity as traders reopen positions amid improved market sentiment and the cessation of major liquidations.
“This gradual increase indicates a return of leveraged activity in the market. The slight uptick suggests that some traders have started reopening their leveraged positions amid a modest improvement in overall sentiment, especially following the halt of the large liquidation wave that occurred earlier.”
The slow addition of leverage reflects a more cautious trader mentality and limited expectations for significant price increases. The trend's continuation could signal a restoration of confidence, particularly if Bitcoin maintains its position above the $110,000 support level.
Leveraged trading has led to notable losses for traders, including James Wynn, who reportedly incurred a $4.8 million loss in the past week.
Make or Break Moment for Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin's dominance in the overall crypto market cap is once again a focal point for traders. Following the volatility in October, which significantly impacted altcoins, Bitcoin's market dominance has stabilized, but potential challenges lie ahead.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin Dominance has confirmed a loss of its macro uptrend, validating a new macro downtrend. He noted that Bitcoin Dominance has encountered resistance at its previous uptrend and the 60% level, with the ~64% level also acting as new resistance.
“Bitcoin Dominance has indeed turned both the Uptrend (light blue) and 60% (black) into new resistances. In fact, the ~64% level is also figuring as new resistance.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin dominance was measured at 59.6%, after spiking to 63.5% on Oct. 10. Rekt Capital previously identified the area around 70% as a classic trend reversal zone. He believes that with old supports now acting as resistance, Bitcoin Dominance is poised for a new macro downtrend. The loss of the 57.68% level as support is seen as a potential trigger for a major altseason.
“And going forward, it is likely that losing the green 57.68% level as support is what would kickstart a major Altseason.”
The severity of the altcoin drawdown is further evidenced by a basket of Binance's top 50 altcoin futures, which remains below levels seen before the 2022 crypto bear market bottom.