Talks inside the White House about a possible pardon for Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao are “heating up,” according to a Fox Business report that sent odds of clemency surging on prediction markets.
Fox Business Senior Correspondent Charles Gasparino posted on X Friday that “people close to CZ” believe discussions within President Donald Trump’s circle have intensified over the past week. “Many Trump insiders believe the fraud case against [CZ] was pretty weak, and certainly not something that merited a felony conviction and jail time,” Gasparino wrote.
The post fueled a sharp reaction in crypto circles and on prediction exchange Kalshi, where the likelihood of a presidential pardon for Zhao jumped more than 20% following the report.
Zhao, the former chief executive of Binance and one of the crypto industry’s most recognizable figures, served a four-month prison sentence last year after pleading guilty to failing to maintain an effective anti‑money laundering program. As part of a sweeping settlement with U.S. authorities, Binance agreed to pay $4.3 billion in penalties—one of the largest corporate fines in U.S. history—while Zhao personally paid $50 million.
Though released in 2024, Zhao has remained barred from involvement in Binance’s operations under the terms of his plea deal, which Axios reported in September included a lifetime ban from the company. He is still the exchange’s largest shareholder.
In a May podcast appearance, Zhao said he had applied for a presidential pardon from Trump following his release—an account that appeared to confirm earlier reporting by The Wall Street Journal in March, which he had denied at the time.
According to Gasparino, Trump is now “leaning toward a pardon,” but advisers are wary of the optics given the president’s family’s growing involvement in crypto ventures. The former president has repeatedly spoken favorably about digital assets and has launched several NFT projects tied to his brand, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest.
Zhao’s possible return to the industry would mark a dramatic turn for the once-dominant crypto executive, who built Binance into the world’s largest digital asset exchange before U.S. regulators intensified scrutiny of offshore trading platforms. His downfall became a symbol of Washington’s wider crackdown on compliance and financial transparency in crypto.
While no official statement has been issued by the Trump administration, the renewed speculation underscores how politically charged the intersection of crypto and U.S. regulation has become.
A pardon could also reignite debate over whether high-profile figures in the digital asset world are receiving preferential treatment compared with smaller industry players targeted by the Justice Department and the SEC.
For now, traders appear to be betting that Trump’s leniency could come sooner rather than later. On Kalshi, the “CZ pardon before Jan. 20, 2026” market saw heavy volume following Fox’s report.
As one crypto trader posted beneath Gasparino’s update, “If Trump pardons CZ, that’s the ultimate bull signal for the industry.”
Whether that prediction proves right may depend less on the legal merits of Zhao’s case than on the political calculus unfolding inside the White House.