Below 90,000 dollars, bitcoin sends a strong signal. A key profitability indicator hits its lowest level in two years, marking a possible market reset. Behind an apparently stable price, on-chain data reveals a profound shift in investor behavior.
In Brief
- •The price of Bitcoin falls back below $90,000, but this pullback hides a much deeper underlying dynamic.
- •A key profitability indicator (the SOPR ratio) drops to its lowest level in two years.
- •Long-term holders have stopped selling, marking a possible “reset” of the market.
- •This decline in the ratio signals the end of a distribution phase and a purge of speculative excess.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Stop Selling: A Reset Signal?
In an analysis published on December 7, CryptoQuant reveals a major shift in the behavior of long-term bitcoin holders (LTH), while some analysts anticipate an end-of-year rally.
These holders, who have kept their BTC for more than 155 days, have apparently suspended their sales while the market dropped below 90,000 dollars.
The bitcoin SOPR ratio (LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR) has fallen to 1.35, reaching its lowest level since early 2024, indicates analyst CryptoOnchain in a post shared on CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog.
This ratio, which compares the profitability of UTXOs spent by long-term and short-term holders, is an essential indicator of potential selling pressure on the market.
This ratio drop is interpreted as the end of an intense distribution phase by LTH. In other words, these actors, historically considered the strongest in the market, have stopped taking profits or cutting losses.
CryptoQuant’s report mentions a “complete market reset,” suggesting that the speculative excess observed earlier in the bullish cycle has been cleared out. According to available data, the following is observed:
- •The end of the selling pressure exerted by long-term holders, often drivers of major distribution phases;
- •A return to lower profitability levels, reducing the incentive to sell for these investor profiles;
- •A market purge of speculative excesses, which had pushed the ratio to highs at the peak of the cycle.
As CryptoOnchain summarizes, “the drop suggests a massive market reset. The speculative foam that had driven the ratio to highs has been purged.” Thus, this structural change could announce a new market equilibrium, but without a clear signal of an imminent bullish restart.
Short-Term Speculators in Full Hesitation
While the historic holders withdraw from the arena, short-term actors (STH) seem to have taken over, not without inconsistencies.
CryptoQuant observes erratic behavior by these speculators, characterized by net buying then selling moves over very short periods. “The net position change of STH over 30 days saw a strong upward peak on November 24, before turning negative on December 1,” the report specifies.
These data illustrate deep uncertainty among recent market players, whose decisions seem driven more by short-term fluctuations than by fundamental convictions.
This instability is also reflected in the fact that it is now mostly STH who generate profitable transactions. Unlike LTH who suspended their movements, speculators continue to enter and exit the market quickly.
The lack of clear direction and the emotional volatility of this segment could keep bitcoin in a turbulence zone, without a real support base to trigger a new bullish impulse.
The bitcoin price reflects less inertia than a silent change. With the disappearance of selling pressure from historic holders, the market enters a waiting phase. It remains to be seen whether this reset prepares a lasting rebound or prolongs current instability.