After an explosive two-year run that pushed Bitcoin to new heights, the tide has turned. In our latest interview, renowned investor and Morgan Creek Capital founder Mark Yusko breaks down why he believes we’ve officially entered a Bitcoin bear market — and why this one may look very different from the brutal winters of the past.
Understanding Bitcoin's Fair Value and Market Correction
According to Yusko, the key to understanding what’s happening now starts with Bitcoin’s (BTC) fair value. Using network-based models such as Metcalfe’s Law, he argues that Bitcoin reached only modestly above fair value during the recent peak — far less exuberant than previous cycles. That alone, he says, suggests any correction we face is likely to be milder.
But that doesn’t mean the market won’t feel cold. In the interview, Yusko details the forces pushing Bitcoin downward: a slowdown in new buyers, OG wallets finally taking profits, and heavy pressure from futures markets that historically cap price rallies and accelerate declines.
Long-Term Tailwinds Despite Short-Term Volatility
Still, he insists this is not a repeat of 2018 or 2022. Unlike previous cycles, the broader macro environment, reduced leverage, institutional adoption, and the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies all act as long-term tailwinds, even as short-term volatility returns.
Bitcoin's Trajectory in the Arc of Technological Adoption
More importantly, Yusko discusses where Bitcoin sits within the long arc of technological adoption. He says we are deep into the “then they fight you” phase, with incumbents resisting the rise of decentralized finance. But, as he notes, better technology always wins.
Guidance for Investors and Future Outlook
In this conversation, Yusko offers clear guidance for investors, his outlook for the next cycle and what he sees as Bitcoin’s inevitable trajectory over the coming decade.