Bitcoin (BTC) may be in the middle of a market reset that historically precedes sharp rebounds, according to analytics firm Swissblock.
In a series of posts on X, the research group pointed to its proprietary “Aggregated Impulse Signal,” which has reliably marked past cycle bottoms, with the firm noting that when the indicator returns to zero, it often means that selling pressure has been exhausted and a renewed upside is starting.
Analyzing the Impulse for a Turnaround
According to Swissblock, the last seven instances of the Aggregated Impulse Signal triggering in 2024 all marked major lows, which were then followed by BTC climbing 20 to 30% and altcoins jumping 50 to 150%.
The setup appears to be repeating, with 22% of altcoins currently showing negative impulse, a reading that falls within the historical 15 to 25% bottom formation zone. The firm linked this to market cycles where peak stress and capitulation forces short-term traders to sell, exhausting panic and allowing new buyers to enter.
“Markets move in cycles of stress and recovery. When stress peaks, short-term traders are forced to sell at a loss,” Swissblock explained. “Capitulation stress often mark the end of downside phases, setting the stage for recovery.”
This perspective has found support in other on-chain data. In an earlier report, CryptoQuant indicated that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, has cooled back to a level of 2.0. This area has historically been a mid-cycle reset instead of a sign of a bear market, which means that the current consolidation is a healthy digestion phase.
Furthermore, long-term BTC holders have also cut back on taking profits, which has made the supply tighter and set the stage for price growth. This group behavior is similar to what happened in 2017 and 2020, right before big rallies started.
Broader Market Sentiment and Price Trajectory
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at $114,700, up 0.6% in the last 24 hours and 2.1% over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko. Despite a 1.5% dip in the last two weeks, the OG crypto still managed to jump 6.7% over the past month and remains nearly 80% higher year-over-year.
Still, it sits 7.7% below its August all-time high, with analysts saying holding above the $110,000 support zone is critical even as traders eye $120,000 as the next hurdle.
Meanwhile, after facing heavy selling last week and even slipping 13%, the latest prognosis for Ethereum (ETH) shows that it needs to reclaim the resistance band around $4,200 if it is to move back to previous highs. On their part, Cardano (ADA) and Ripple’s XRP also lost ground, while Binance Coin (BNB) remains one of the stronger large-cap tokens despite the recent correction.
Looking ahead, the mix of resilient liquidity, strong long-term holder conviction, and historical cycle signals points to a bullish end to 2025. Projections from Standard Chartered as well as market watchers such as Mr. Wall Street suggest that Bitcoin could end up anywhere between $140,000 and $170,000 before the current cycle peaks.