Key Insights
- •The Fed’s third rate cut of 2025 is the main macro catalyst, with markets watching how it influences crypto liquidity and risk appetite.
- •JOLTS, jobless claims, and the 30-year bond auction will shape expectations for inflation, growth, and capital flows into digital assets.
- •Powell’s press conference is expected to guide short-term volatility, especially for Bitcoin, ETH, and broader crypto market sentiment.
Crypto news watchers, buckle up — this week kicks off with a packed lineup of macro data drops and central bank moves that could swing risk sentiment from cautious to downright euphoric, or vice versa, as Bitcoin hovers around $92,000 amid whispers of a year-end rally.
Tuesday’s September JOLTS job openings, Wednesday’s Fed rate decision and Powell presser, Thursday’s OPEC report, initial jobless claims, and the 30-year bond auction are all on the schedule.
With the third rate cut of 2025 all but locked in at 25 basis points, odds at 95% per CME FedWatch as of December 7, these events arrive at a delicate moment for the $3.1 trillion crypto market.
Bitcoin’s 1% downtick to $81,219 post-Fed anticipation masks underlying jitters: $3.8 billion in ETF outflows last month, SoSoValue tallied December 7, but fresh inflows of $150 million on December 6 signal tentative recovery.
For traders, it’s classic volatility fuel. Soft jobs numbers could greenlight deeper cuts, juicing BTC toward $95,000 per Citi’s December forecast, while hawkish Powell tones might trigger a dip to $88,000 support.
Setting the Stage: Why This Week’s Crypto News Matters
The Kobeissi Letter’s post gets right to the point. It leads with Tuesday’s JOLTS report, the Fed’s preferred measure of labor-market slack.
Consensus now sits at 8.2 million job openings, a modest pullback from August’s 8.4 million figure, according to Bloomberg’s survey.
A softer print here would reinforce the Fed’s soft-landing narrative, easing fears of recession and unlocking more liquidity for risk assets like crypto, where Bitcoin’s correlation to Nasdaq sits at 0.85 over 90 days.
Wednesday dominates, of course. The Fed’s December 17-18 meeting wraps with a 25 bps cut to 4.00-4.25%, the third this year, continuing the pivot from 5.50% peaks in July 2024.
Powell’s 2:30 p.m. ET presser follows, where dot-plot updates could hint at 50 bps more in 2026, or pause if inflation ticks up to 2.8% PCE.
Historically, dovish Feds have sparked 15% BTC rallies within weeks; the September cut alone lifted prices 10% in days, per Coinmarketcap data.
Thursday piles on: OPEC’s monthly report at 1 p.m. ET could signal production tweaks amid $70 oil, impacting energy costs and inflation reads.
Jobless claims, expected at 225,000, and the 30-year auction, yielding 4.45% last time, test Treasury demand in an easing cycle.
Kobeissi’s post nailed the stakes: “The third rate cut of 2025 is coming this week,” and replies like @thebitcoinwave_’s quip, “So what you’re saying is we’re going higher.”
Crypto News: Sentiment and Market Ripples
Replies to Kobeissi’s post paint a vivid snapshot of trader nerves. @BitcoinNexus8 fired off: “Huge week ahead with data fireworks and the Fed on deck rate cut odds climbing fast this is exactly the setup crypto loves,” pure bull fuel.
Contrast that with @cmpstOperator’s dry wit: “The bullisher the sentiment, the better/smoother the dump towards 72k,” echoing capitulation fears after November’s 27% BTC drop from $125,481 highs.
Kobeissi’s follow-up teased premium trades up +370% since 2020, linking to their subscription, a savvy nod to how macro calendars drive alpha in crypto news cycles.
@CryptoDon’s video reply, “Powell about to decide if Christmas comes early or gets canceled,” captured the holiday-timed drama.
This crypto news echo chamber amplifies real flows: Bitcoin ETF volumes hit $2.5 billion daily last week, up 15% from November averages, Farside Investors reported December 7, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading at $42 billion AUM.
JOLTS isn’t just trivia; it’s the Fed’s favorite slack indicator. September’s expected 8.2 million openings would signal cooling demand, down 200,000 from August, potentially justifying two more 2026 cuts.
Crypto loves slack; the September read preceded a 5% BTC pop in 48 hours, historical CME data shows December 7.
OPEC’s Thursday report eyes compliance: Output cuts of 2.2 million barrels daily since October 2024 hold oil at $70, but non-OPEC surges (U.S. shale at 13.4 million bpd) pressure prices. A dovish tilt could ease inflation, greening risk; hawkish? Energy costs spike, weighing on alts.
The 30-year auction at 1 p.m. ET Thursday tests duration appetite; last bid-to-cover at 2.45, tail 1 bp, per TreasuryDirect. Weak demand (yield above 4.45%) signals flight to safety, dumping BTC; strong bids ease yields, lifting it 2-3%.
Powell’s Pivot: The Crypto News Wild Card
Wednesday’s 2 p.m. ET decision is scripted — 25 bps cut — but Powell’s words aren’t. September’s “further progress” on 2% inflation opened the floodgates.
This time, dot-plot revisions could signal pause if tariffs loom under Trump. Markets price 75 bps total 2026 cuts, down from 100 bps in November, CME FedWatch December 7 shows.
Crypto news history favors doves: Powell’s March 2024 “not in rate cut mode” triggered a 15% BTC dump; September’s reversal sparked 20% gains. With PCE at 2.8%, hotter than 2.6% expected, rhetoric matters.
This crypto news gauntlet could redefine Q4. Soft JOLTS and dovish Powell greenlight $95,000 BTC by Christmas, per Citi December 7; sticky data risks $88,000 retest. OPEC and auctions add layers; oil stability bolsters alts, bond bids ease dollar strength.
As @mahera777 queried December 7: “Do you predict the size of the third rate cut?,” the answer’s 25 bps — but the real bet’s on narrative. In crypto’s high-stakes poker game, this week’s cards could flip the board.