Key Insight
- •Dan Gambardello challenges the four-year cycle theory, sparking discussions in the crypto news space.
- •The market operates on liquidity cycles, not Bitcoin halving schedules.
- •Altcoins have decoupled from Bitcoin halving timing completely.
Crypto news continues to focus on market cycles as analyst Dan Gambardello released a detailed analysis challenging the traditional four-year cycle framework. The crypto market expert argues that following this timing model could be a “colossal mistake” for investors. Gambardello’s thesis centers on liquidity cycles rather than halving events as the primary driver of crypto market movements. The analysis comes as Bitcoin trades below key moving averages and the crypto prices face continued consolidation.
Four-Year Cycle Theory Faces Scrutiny
Gambardello opened his analysis by examining technical indicators from previous bear markets. The 20-week moving average crossing below the 50-week moving average preceded major bottoms in 2014, 2018, and 2021. The 2014 and 2018 bear markets both saw approximately 161 days from the moving average cross to the bottom. The 2021 bear market crypto news extended this timeline to 238 days. The current crypto market structure shows that the 20-week moving average has not yet crossed below the 50-week moving average.
If this cross occurs within one to two months and follows a similar 150-day decline pattern, Bitcoin would face around 200 total days of downside. Gambardello argues this scenario is unlikely based on macro conditions. The analyst points to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) as the overlooked factor. During the 2014, 2018, and 2021 bear markets, PMI was falling in each case. The business cycle indicator has been contracting for a record period. Current data suggests this contraction is ending as quantitative tightening concludes.
Liquidity Cycles Drive Crypto Prices, Not Halving Events
The core argument in this crypto news analysis challenges the reason behind past bull markets. Gambardello overlays historical price action with global liquidity expansions. The 2013, 2017, and 2020-21 bull markets all coincided with major liquidity expansion periods. Each of these expansions happened to align with Bitcoin halving events. The analyst argues that the halving served as an overlay while liquidity was the crucial factor driving crypto prices higher. The supply shock from halvings remains real and contributes to long-term Bitcoin appreciation. However, Gambardello mentioned the halving isn’t the ingredient creating crypto bull and bear markets. It functions as one fundamental tailwind inside much larger liquidity cycles. Record-breaking PMI weakness occurred while the crypto market entered what many assumed would be a typical post-halving bull run.
Institutional Control Changes Crypto Market Dynamics
Gambardello cites commentary from analysts noting the rise of institutional control. The crypto market now behaves like an asset class rather than a retail experiment. In other crypto news, exchange-traded funds exist for Bitcoin, with multiple altcoin ETF applications pending approval. Bitcoin trades with clear correlations to macro assets. Altcoins follow liquidity cycles and institutional flows rather than halving schedules.
He also mentioned that flows have become algorithmic rather than emotional. Global liquidity drives price action across the crypto market. Analyst Wilberforce noted on social media that institutional control may stretch the traditional four-year cycle into five years. Every major rally in crypto history aligned with global liquidity expansions. Every stagnation or crash is aligned with liquidity tightening. The halvings occurred during these periods, but didn’t drive the underlying price movements. Liquidity now flows into competing assets, including artificial intelligence stocks, equities, and technology sectors.
Altcoins Decouple from Bitcoin Halving Cycle
In other crypto news, Gambardello argues altcoins have officially broken away from Bitcoin halving schedules. Altcoin cycles will now be driven by ETF demand, institutional rotations, on-chain activity, sector narratives, liquidity flows, AI adoption, layer-2 growth, and interoperability cycles. Major assets, including Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche, no longer move on a Bitcoin halving clock. The crypto market has entered a brand new game with entirely different dynamics than 2013, 2017, or even 2021. What replaces the four-year cycle is the first true liquidity cycle of the cryptocurrency era.
This cycle is driven by Federal Reserve balance sheet inflections, treasury cash flows, bond issuance cycles, repo market stress, PMI reversals, international liquidity from China and Japan, ETF flows, institutional rebalancing, and cross-asset liquidity correlations. Analyst Hunter Horsley described the psychological element of cycle expectations. Investors believe in four-year cycles and sell in 2025, expecting a down year. The contraction of the business cycle over recent years has created this mental element where investors sell, thinking the bear market is starting. The halving clock no longer drives crypto prices. Liquidity cycles have replaced timing based on supply events as the primary market driver.