As discussions unfold around a $12 billion agricultural aid package, the cryptocurrency markets are experiencing notable fluctuations. Bitcoin is currently flirting with the $90,000 mark, while altcoins appear to be declining again. Despite the absence of significant macroeconomic downdrafts today, the market has reversed its previous upward momentum. This raises the question of whether macroeconomic trends are less influential on cryptocurrencies than initially anticipated.
Understanding the Decline in Cryptocurrencies
Bloomberg’s economic research team has conducted an extensive analysis, with Andre Dragosch highlighting a critical observation. According to the company’s internal model, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are primarily declining due to inherent factors unique to this sector. As a result, numerous developments throughout 2025 have not produced the expected outcomes in the crypto space.
While significant negative macroeconomic developments undeniably affect cryptocurrencies negatively, Andre argues that short-term investor behaviors are the main drivers of the overall performance. Indeed, the report confirms this notion, indicating that sales by long-term holders (LTH) are the primary reason for the dip in cryptocurrencies.
The current report categorizes developments from January 2025 to December 2025 in four key colors. Gray represents crypto-specific developments like regulations, exchange news, hack cases, and adoption rates. Blue reflects investor appetite and “fear of missing out” (FOMO). Purple follows reactions during periods of uncertainty. Yellow encompasses macro developments like Fed interest rate decisions and global liquidity. Bitcoin’s weak performance stems more from its internal challenges than global economics or the dollar’s condition.
Current State of the Cryptocurrency Market
Phoenix identifies two critical levels, indicating that action should only be expected if one of them breaks permanently: $92,000 above and $88,000 below. Should we witness convincing weekly closures above or below these points, Bitcoin’s direction will become apparent.
Today, the macro backdrop appeared supportive. The sale of Semafor H200 chips to China is expected to be approved, potentially propelling advancements in artificial intelligence. As the AI competition intensifies, if cryptocurrencies, which often behave like tech stocks, respond similarly, they may witness an upward trend.
DaanCrypto shared recent evaluations for ETH, stating:
ETH is showing a bullish trend in the lower time frame, rising above the $3,000 level.
Next, the daily 200MA/EMA hovers around $3,400-3,500. To achieve this, the bullish trend in the lower timeframe must persist.