Crypto Markets May Be Ready to Turn as Tightening Cycle Ends

Analyst Michael van de Poppe suggests that the Federal Reserve’s latest decisions could mark the end of the tightening era — and possibly the beginning of a new risk-on cycle that breathes life back into digital assets.

A Market Running on Empty

The past year has left many altcoin holders in survival mode. Prices have languished, liquidity has evaporated, and rallies have fizzled almost as soon as they began. Yet beneath the surface, van de Poppe argues, the pressure building within the market structure resembles the calm before a storm.

He describes the current phase as an “exhaustion zone” — the point in every macro cycle when traders capitulate, volatility compresses, and fundamentals start aligning for a reversal. “It’s not the collapse that signals a bottom,” he wrote, “it’s the indifference.”

The Fed’s Pivot: History Rhymes

For van de Poppe, the turning point isn’t found in on-chain metrics but in macroeconomic policy. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points and confirmed plans to halt quantitative tightening in early December — a move that echoes the start of previous bull markets.

When central banks loosen policy, liquidity flows back into risk assets. This was the spark that ignited crypto’s explosive rally in 2020, following years of stagnation. Now, van de Poppe sees a similar setup unfolding: inflation has cooled, the labor market is weakening, and policymakers are shifting from fighting price pressure to supporting growth.

If the pattern holds, the coming months could mark the point where money begins to flow from safety back into speculation.

Gold’s Retreat Hints at Rotation

An early sign of that shift may already be visible in gold’s behavior. After a strong rally driven by fear and central bank demand, the metal has fallen nearly 10% from its peak. Historically, gold tends to top out when investors start looking for higher-yielding opportunities.

That rotation, van de Poppe says, often precedes a surge in Bitcoin and equities. “Gold peaks when liquidity is trapped in safety,” he noted. “Once fear fades, capital returns to growth — and crypto stands to benefit most.”

Bitcoin’s Valuation and the Road to Recovery

At roughly $109,000, Bitcoin’s current price appears subdued compared to its macro peers. Van de Poppe points out that when measured against commodities like gold or copper, Bitcoin looks deeply undervalued. His models project a potential breakout toward $150,000–$170,000 if the liquidity cycle reverses.

In that scenario, smaller altcoins could follow, just as they did in 2020 and 2021. Some already show bullish divergence, suggesting accumulation beneath the surface despite weak retail sentiment.

The Setup for a New Cycle

For now, the market remains fragile. Traders continue to focus on Bitcoin’s resistance around $112,000, a level that has capped upward momentum for weeks. A confirmed breakout, combined with the Fed’s pivot and a cooling gold market, could create the perfect storm for renewed optimism.

Van de Poppe believes this alignment could spark the first phase of a new altcoin season, ending what has been one of the longest consolidation periods in crypto’s history.

“The fatigue you feel now,” he concluded, “is exactly what you feel at the end of every bear market — right before the next expansion begins.”