Crypto Expert on Bitcoin Collapse: Wait for U.S. Stocks to Fall Before Going All In

Key Takeaways

• •
  Bitcoin has fallen below $82,000 after two months of continuous decline.
• •
  Analysts disagree on the outlook: some see a looming bottom, others expect more downside before recovery.
• •
  Long-term projections still include the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $200,000, but the timing remains uncertain.

Arthur Hayes' Perspective on Market Reset

Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin is approaching the end of its correction phase. However, he cautions that the market should not anticipate an immediate rebound. Hayes suggests that a true bottom will only form once U.S. equities experience their own pullback. He argues that fresh liquidity enters Bitcoin only when risk assets across the broader market reset.

His earlier projection, made when Bitcoin was trading around $90,000, indicated that the price could still slide into the $80,000 to $85,000 range before stabilizing. With Bitcoin now trading below $82,000, his scenario has largely materialized. Despite his current caution, Hayes remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for Bitcoin, continuing to see a path for it to reach $200,000.

Raoul Pal Sees the Crash as Part of a Familiar Crypto Cycle

Macro analyst Raoul Pal adopts a broader historical perspective. He posits that the current sell-off is a recognizable pattern rather than an indicator of a trend reversal. Pal points to previous bull markets where sharp corrections were common and often occurred without clear catalysts. He cites market phases from 2016–2017 and the pandemic-era plunge as evidence that rapid, aggressive corrections have repeatedly preceded new highs.

From this viewpoint, the recent volatility does not contradict a bullish cycle. Pal believes that the intensity of the current pullback reflects the unwinding of crowded positions, similar to other mid-cycle resets observed in the past.

Peter Brandt Focuses on the Longest Horizon

Veteran trader Peter Brandt maintains a long-term outlook. He recently suggested that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory could still involve a significant drop to $58,000 before entering a major expansion phase. According to his model, the next substantial rally is not expected in the immediate future. Brandt projects that Bitcoin could eventually reach $200,000, but this is anticipated around the third quarter of 2029, well beyond the current cycle.

Brandt has consistently stated that he continues to hold Bitcoin, despite anticipating further downside risk in the near term.

Diverging Outlooks Amidst Price Chart Movements

Bitcoin's move below $82,000 has generated considerable concern, yet analysts remain divided on its implications. Hayes views the market as nearing a bottom but believes additional macroeconomic stress is necessary to complete the reset. Pal interprets the downturn as a predictable repetition of past cycle corrections. Brandt anticipates an eventual recovery but foresees more pain within the current cycle before long-term upside returns.

For traders, the current challenge lies not in the market's volatility, but in discerning which of these forecasts will prove accurate as Bitcoin seeks stability.