Critical Bitcoin Breakdown: 5% SMA Threat Sparks Bear Market Fears

Key Technical Indicators

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  Bitcoin is currently trading just 5% above its critical 730-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level historically associated with bear market triggers.
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  Past instances where Bitcoin fell below the 730-day SMA in 2014, 2018, and 2022 led to significant drawdowns of 77% to 85%.
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  Recent market activity shows a battle between increasing ETF inflows and substantial offloading by large holders (whales), contributing to price volatility.

Bitcoin's 730-Day SMA: A Historical Perspective

In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, technical indicators often serve as lighthouses amid the storm. A recent chart shared by analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) on X has ignited fresh debate, spotlighting Bitcoin’s 730-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)—a two-year trendline that has historically preceded major downturns. As of November 22, 2025, BTC trades at $85,143.70, just above the SMA’s $81,250.86 level, while the amplified 730-day SMA x5 metric looms at $406,254.29, hinting at ambitious long-term upside if the bull case holds.

Historical Patterns: Every Cycle Crash Started Here

The Glassnode-sourced “Bitcoin Investor Tool” visualizes over a decade of price action, overlaying BTC’s spot price (black line) against the 730-day SMA (green) and its fivefold variant (pink). Shaded gray bars mark past bear markets, revealing a stark pattern: in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin’s plunge below this SMA coincided with prolonged slumps—drops of 85%, 84%, and 77% respectively from cycle peaks. These breaches weren’t mere coincidences; they reflected waning momentum after euphoric rallies, often amplified by macroeconomic headwinds like tightening monetary policy or regulatory shocks. Today, post the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrors prior cycles: a surge to all-time highs near $108,000 in early 2025, followed by consolidation.

Bull vs Bear Scenario: Key Levels to Watch

The current proximity to the SMA—less than 5% above—evokes caution. A close below could signal exhaustion, potentially dragging prices toward $70,000 support zones and inviting short-sellers. Yet, the chart’s upward-trending SMAs suggest resilience; the x5 line’s exponential growth underscores Bitcoin’s maturation as a store-of-value asset, less prone to the wild swings of its youth.

Community reactions underscore the divide. Skeptics like @Eldoctorcripto argue no “clear trend exhaustion signals” exist, pointing to intact higher-timeframe structures and robust ETF inflows exceeding $2 billion last week. Others, echoing @thebigp87, lament diminishing returns, citing Satoshi-era whales offloading holdings as evidence of shifting sentiment. @JMAMCMSM notes bear markets often brew before SMA breaks, urging vigilance over rigid thresholds.

Community Sentiment and Market Catalysts

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s fate hinges on broader catalysts: U.S. election outcomes, Federal Reserve rate paths, and Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade ripple effects. If BTC defends the SMA, a retest of $100,000+ becomes plausible, buoyed by institutional adoption. A breach, however, might echo 2022’s capitulation, testing hodlers’ resolve. As always in crypto, data informs but conviction drives—investors, watch this level closely.