Grayscale: Bitcoin May Hit New High in 2026, Four-Year Cycle Theory Questioned
According to a recent report by Grayscale, Bitcoin’s 32% pullback since early October is in line with historical averages, marking the ninth significant pullback in the current bull market. Grayscale believes Bitcoin may not enter a deep cyclical downturn and expects its price to reach new highs next year, questioning the applicability of the four-year cycle theory.
Riksbank Releases Stablecoin Policy Research Report, Indicating Gradual Convergence of US and European Regulatory Paths
The Swedish central bank (Riksbank) released a research report pointing out that despite different regulatory frameworks, the US and Europe are gradually showing substantial convergence in stablecoin policies.
The report focuses on analyzing three key dimensions of central bank policy: whether stablecoin issuers are allowed access to settlement systems, whether central bank reserves can be used as collateral, and whether liquidity support can be obtained.
While the US and Europe legally allow the use of central bank reserves, practical restrictions remain.
The ECB has allowed some non-bank payment institutions to hold central bank account balances for transaction flows, but has not liberalized the use of stablecoins as backers.
F2Pool Data: With Network Difficulty Remaining High, Most Older Bitcoin Mining Rigs Have Fallen Below Their Shutdown Price
At the current electricity price of $0.06/kWh, most older Bitcoin mining rigs have fallen below their shutdown price, entering a period of significant losses. Data shows that the shutdown price for models such as Antminer S19, S19j, S19 Pro, S17 series, Avalon A13/A12 series, and Whatsminer M20/M30 series is generally around $90,000 to $100,000 or higher, with negative daily net profits, approaching or reaching shutdown levels.
In contrast, newer generation high-efficiency liquid-cooled models still have a significant advantage. The Antminer S23 Hyd. series has a shutdown price of approximately $32,200 and is currently maintaining positive profits; models such as the S21 XP Hyd. have a shutdown price in the $40,000–$50,000 range, demonstrating significantly higher resilience than older, less efficient liquid-cooled models.
Industry insiders believe that with the network difficulty remaining high and the efficiency gap between mining machines widening, this cycle is accelerating the “stratification” of mining machines, and outdated models are finding it difficult to maintain profitability under current market conditions.