Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, which experienced sharp declines in October and November contrary to expectations, have started to recover in recent days. This has revived expectations of a strong and sustained rise above $100,000, with Coinbase Institutional analysts outlining a positive scenario for December.
Analysts believe the November correction paved the way for a market recovery towards the end of the year, citing a decrease in corporate speculation and a return to stability as reasons. Coinbase analysts noted that the systemic leverage ratio, which tracks institutional speculation, has fallen almost dramatically from 10% in November to around 4%, and is beginning to stabilize.
At this point, analysts note that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have reset after two months of intense downward pressure and are well-positioned for an uptrend. According to analysts, the latest data may now point to a potential bull market rally in December after two months of sharp decline.
“A challenging November could herald an unforgettable December.”
Because lower leverage means a healthier market and less reaction to sudden drops. Coinbase analysts also pointed out several key signals that emerged in November.
Key Market Indicators in November
The number of open positions in BTC/ETH/SOL perpetual futures decreased by 16% on a monthly basis. This indicates that fewer leveraged positions remained open, and leverage decreased.
During the same period, there were significant outflows from US spot ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $3.5 billion in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs experienced outflows of $1.4 billion. Large investors withdrew from these instruments.
According to Coinbase, these outflows were not signs of a collapse, but rather indications that the market was becoming less over-leveraged and stabilizing. In essence, institutions reduced their exposure but did not abandon the market.
Historical Performance and December Outlook
Data shows that historically, December has provided strong returns in post-halving bull markets, with an average increase of 25% for Bitcoin. However, the year 2025 repeatedly defied seasonality expectations.
Historically, October and November, typically months with the strongest price increases, turned out to be the worst months since 2018. Despite all the sharp declines experienced, Coinbase argues that if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable, a cleaner and more stable market structure could pave the way for a strong recovery towards the end of the year.