Chainlink Price Prediction: LINK plunges 7% Even As Grayscale Gets Nod To Launch First US Chainlink ETF This Week

The Chainlink price has experienced a notable decline, dropping 7% in the last 24 hours to trade at $12.17 as of 3:40 a.m. EST. This movement occurred despite a significant 122% increase in daily trading volume, which reached $609 million.

This price action comes as Grayscale has secured approval to list the first US Chainlink ETF (exchange-traded fund) on NYSE Arca this week.

US regulators have granted approval for Grayscale to convert its $30 million Chainlink Trust into an ETF. This ETF is set to list on NYSE Arca under the ticker GLNK. The structure is designed to provide traditional investors with exposure to LINK without the necessity of holding the token directly.

The ETF may also incorporate staking for a portion of its holdings, enabling the fund to earn rewards. It will utilize a cash-based creation and redemption model, similar to other cryptocurrency ETFs.

This approval follows months of filings and signifies an increasing openness from regulators to accommodate altcoin ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Despite the positive development of the ETF approval, traders appear to be engaging in a "sell the news" strategy, as indicated by LINK's price slide today. This suggests that expectations for the ETF may have already been factored into the market price, and short-term speculators are now capitalizing on their gains.

Should the Chainlink ETF attract substantial inflows post-launch, it has the potential to enhance liquidity and deepen market depth for the Chainlink price in the coming months.

Chainlink On-Chain Signals

On-chain data from Q4 2025 reveals a consistent upward trend in Chainlink network usage, even as the price has experienced a downturn in recent weeks. Analytics providers report approximately 2,298 new addresses and around 10,000 active addresses at recent highs. These levels, not seen since early 2025, indicate that user adoption continues to expand.

Exchange reserves of LINK have decreased to approximately 158 million tokens, marking their lowest point since mid-2022. This trend typically signifies a reduction in the number of coins readily available for sale on the open market. This decline in liquid supply is consistent with the Chainlink Reserve Program, which converts protocol revenue into LINK and removes roughly 0.35% of the total supply annually. This mechanism functions similarly to a stock buyback program, gradually increasing scarcity.

Major financial institutions, including UBS and regional banks in Turkey, are actively testing or integrating Chainlink standards for tokenized securities. This development reinforces the perspective that Chainlink's oracle and messaging tools could play a pivotal role in the forthcoming wave of tokenization.

Chainlink Price Continues Downturn Trend In Falling Channel

The Chainlink price has broken down from a rounded-top pattern after failing to sustain levels above the mid-$20 region earlier this year. The cryptocurrency has been trading within a descending channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows since its last peak.

Currently, it is trading just above a horizontal support zone situated between $11 and $12, which previously served as a significant floor in 2024.

The 50-week simple moving average is now trending downwards, approaching $17.5, while the 200-week simple moving average is hovering near $12.6. LINK is trading slightly below or around this long-term trend line, indicating that bulls are actively defending a key support cluster.

Several bounces have occurred, suggesting that many long-term holders perceive the current price area as a value zone. However, a decisive weekly close below this level would signal the commencement of a more pronounced bearish phase.

Momentum indicators are currently leaning towards caution rather than outright oversold conditions. The weekly RSI is situated in the high 30s, indicating weak bullish strength but also leaving room for a potential relief rebound if new buyers enter the market.

The MACD has crossed below its signal line and remains in negative territory, confirming that sellers are still in control of the current trend. The ADX, which is around 30, suggests a relatively strong downtrend that has not yet reached exhaustion.

Chainlink Eyes Crucial $11–$12 Support

In the short term, if the Chainlink price fails to hold the support at the $11–$12 range, the next potential downside target could be the lower horizontal area around $8–$9. This region previously served as the last major accumulation zone before the preceding rally.

Conversely, if the $11–$12 band holds, LINK could initiate a recovery attempt back towards initial resistance levels in the $17–$18 region.

This resistance is situated near the descending 50-week SMA and the upper boundary of the recent channel. A weekly close above this level would represent the first indication that the downtrend is nearing its end, potentially paving the way for a move towards $22.