Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley has stated on social media that the long-discussed "four-year cycle" model for Bitcoin (BTC) is no longer valid. According to Horsley, current market behavior has disrupted this pattern, ushering in a new era.
The Impact of Investor Expectations
Horsley noted that the majority of investors anticipate 2026 to be a bearish year for Bitcoin, aligning with the traditional four-year cycle. He argued that this expectation has a significant knock-on effect, which he explained in three stages:
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First effect: Investors aim to avoid risk by selling in 2025 because they believe a decline will occur in 2026.
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Second impact: This early sell-off effectively turns 2025 into a bearish year and, in doing so, disrupts the four-year cycle itself.
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Third impact: Because the cycle has been broken, 2026 is now an undefined year, becoming "open season."
Shifting Market Dynamics
Horsley has previously articulated that the four-year cycle model is "a product of the old crypto era." He emphasized that the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, the influx of new institutional participants, and the evolving market structure have created a completely new dynamic. According to the CEO, Bitcoin has been in a bear market for approximately six months, and this period is nearing its end.
“The common view is that four-year cycles continue. However, the reality is that this belief inherently disrupts the cycle by shaping investor behavior,” Horsley said, pointing out that Bitcoin remains 2.5% higher than it was at the beginning of the year as of 2025.